Afcon 2024: Elephants count on home advantage but watch out for Morocco

As the 34th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) gets underway in Ivory Coast tomorrow with the hosts taking on Guinea Bissau, SowetanLIVE sports journalists Neville Khoza and Sihle Ndebele take stock of how the groups stages could pan out.

GROUP A: Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Guinea Bissau, Equatorial Guinea

Overview: Pedigree and experience should see the hosts and Nigeria go through. Playing at home will also give Ivory Coast some advantage. Sebastien Haller of German giants Borussia Dortmund is expected to play a key role in helping the Elephants. Napoli striker Victor Osimhen will also be crucial for the Super Eagles, while Equatorial Guinea and Guinea Bissau are likely to finish third and fourth respectively. Even without injured star Victor Boniface, Nigeria will still be a threat, thanks to their squad depth.

Likely group winners: Ivory Coast

Runners-up: Nigeria

Likely third place: Equatorial Guinea

Group fixtures 

Tomorrow: Ivory Coast v Guinea Bissau, 10pm

Sunday: Nigeria v Equatorial Guinea, 2pm

January 18: Equatorial Guinea v Guinea Bissau, 2pm; Ivory Coast v Nigeria, 5pm

January 22: Equatorial Guinea v Ivory Coast, 5pm; Guinea Bissau v Nigeria, 5pm

GROUP B: Egypt, Ghana, Cape Verde, Mozambique 

Overview: Group B is expected to be a two-horse race between Egypt and Ghana. Cape Verde and Mozambique will need a miracle to upset the apple cart. Liverpool ace Mohamed Salah will be eager to inspire the Pharaohs to what would be their seventh Afcon title, having been criticised for failing to replicate his blistering club form in the national team. Mohammed Kudus of West Ham United will be Ghana’s player to watch as the Black Stars aim for what would be their fifth Afcon crown.

Likely group winners: Egypt 

Runners-up: Ghana

Fixtures

Sunday: Egypt v Mozambique, 5pm; Ghana v Cape Verde, 8pm

January 18: Egypt v Ghana, 8pm

January 19: Cape Verde v Mozambique, 2pm

January 22: Mozambique v Ghana, 8pm; Cape Verde v Egypt, 8pm

GROUP C: Senegal, Cameroon, Guinea, Gambia

Overview: This is somewhat the Afcon’s group of death. On paper, holders Senegal and Cameroon should sail through easily. However, Gambia and Guinea won’t be pushovers, especially given what the former did in the last Afcon edition of 2021, where they came to the competition as the lowest-ranked side (150th) and the lowest-ranked team to have ever competed in the tournament but still managed to reach the quarterfinals. The emergence of Serhou Guirassy and the experience of Naby Keïta make Guinea a competitive side.

Likely group winners: Senegal

Runners-up: Cameroon

Likely third place: Gambia

Fixtures

Monday: Senegal v Gambia, 2pm; Cameroon v Guinea, 5pm

January 19: Senegal v Cameroon, 5pm; Guinea v Gambia, 8pm

January 23: Guinea v Senegal, 5pm; Gambia v Cameroon, 5pm

GROUP D: Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Mauritania

Overview: Algeria will look to make up for their poor showing at the previous edition by going all the way in this tournament and reclaiming the title they won in 2019. But they will need to do that against a group that has Burkina Faso, who have always impressed at the finals. On paper, this group looks like an easy one for Algeria, but they face a tricky and unpredictable Burkina Faso, Angola and Mauritania who will want to cause an upset. Captain Riyad Mahrez will be key to the Algerian attack.

Likely group winners: Algeria

Runners-up: Burkina Faso

Likely third place: Angola

Fixtures

Monday: Algeria v Angola 10pm

Tuesday: Burkina Faso v Mauritania 4pm

January 20: Algeria v Burkina Faso 4pm; Mauritania v Angola 7pm

January 23: Angola v Burkina Faso 10pm; Mauritania v Algeria 10pm

GROUP E: Mali, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia

Overview: Mali, SA and Tunisia are all favourites to advance to the knockout stage. Tunisia reached the quarterfinals nine times in the last 10 editions and are ranked third on the continent. With Bafana Bafana boasting a number of Mamelodi Sundowns players, this could give them a slight edge as they are used to African conditions and that is their biggest strength in the tournament. Bafana will also rely on playmaker Percy Tau for goals.

Likely group winners: Tunisia 

Runners-up: South Africa

Likely third place: Mali

Fixtures

Tuesday: Tunisia v Namibia 7pm; Mali v SA 10pm

January 20: Tunisia v Mali 10pm; SA v Namibia 10pm

January 24: SA v Tunisia 7pm; Namibia v Mali 7pm

GROUP F: DR Congo, Morocco, Tanzania, Zambia

Overview: Morocco are the overwhelming favourites to win the title as they will look to replicate their Qatar World Cup run that saw them reach the semifinals. Hakim Ziyech will be eager to inspire Morocco to win their first title since the 70s. Zambia, the 2012 champions are expected to finish as runners-up to Morocco and Patson Daka will be the player to watch for the Zambian side.

Likely group winners: Morocco

Runners-up: Zambia 

Fixtures:

January 17: Morocco v Tanzania 7pm: Congo v Zambia 10pm.

January 21: Morocco v Congo 4pm; Zambia v Tanzania 7pm

January 24: Tanzania v Congo 10pm; Zambia v Morocco 10pm