LYBORN RIKHOTSO | ANC will win 2024 elections, but must convince KZN

Some political analysts suggest that the ANC might not get an outright majority in the 2024 national elections. I disagree. Those who predict that the ANC will dip below 50% are dreaming. The party may be down, but opposition parties will be surprised when it wins the 2024 national elections with more than 50%.

And when it happens, opposition parties will cry foul and say the results were doctored. There is no way the ANC could lose the elections of 2024 as some are predicting.

Gauteng will be hotly contested as political parties such as the DA, EFF and ActionSA want to govern the richest province in the country. The ANC is going to struggle to retain Gauteng as well as KwaZulu-Natal. Newly elected ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and his team will have their work cut out for them in the two provinces. 

But the ANC would need to deal with immoral and unethical leaders in its midst otherwise people will not go out and vote for it in big numbers. It should also try to convince the “clever blacks” who were alienated by former president Jacob Zuma to go and vote for the party.

The people of KwaZulu-Natal have a tendency not to vote for the ANC in big numbers if no “one of their own” is not in a top position in the party. It would be worse if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was dismissed from the cabinet.

Since the KZN ANC has failed to secure a top seven position in the party, chances are high that KZN voters will not give the ANC the nod in 2024. They might vote for the opposition or stay at home.

Zuma still commands a huge following in his home province and could influence the vote for the African Transformation Movement or the radical economic transformation faction should it morph into a political party. Zuma cannot be underestimated.

Narrow provincialism and ethnic majoritarian politics appear to be back as stated by David Masondo and Bongani Ngqulunga (Sunday Times January 8). In fact, it is not only KZN that has an ethnic majoritarian mentality, Limpopo has such mentality as well. The mentality displayed by KZN ANC delegates/people is not surprising because in many countries in Africa, presidents mostly come from a majority ethnic group.

Since the dawn of democracy, Limpopo, the North West, Northern Cape, Free State and Mpumalanga have voted overwhelmingly for the ANC without fail, regardless of whether they had representation in the ANC's top table or not. Voters in those provinces are loyal to the organisation, not to individuals.

Perhaps Mbalula will talk sense to Zuma to instruct his followers to vote for uKhongolose in big numbers. It will, however, not be an easy task as voters might still be angry at President Cyril Ramaphosa in their belief that his ANC has left Zuma in the lurch.

They believe that since he fought for freedom, the ANC is obliged to protect Zuma from being prosecuted for the allegations of corruption levelled against him.

No doubt the 2024 national and provincial elections will be the toughest elections the ANC has ever faced since 1994.

• Rikhotso is a Sowetan reader