If the ANC went to conference today and voted in the same way that the branch nominations have been announced, President Cyril Ramaphosa would return as president by a landslide.

ANC electoral commission head Kgalema Motlanthe on Tuesday gave the tallies of the numbers without breaking them down by province.

Ramaphosa would lead a top six made up of Paul Mashatile as his deputy, Mdumiseni Ntuli as a replacement for Ace Magashule as secretary-general and Nomvula Mokonyane as his deputy.

If the ANC constitutional amendment for the position of two deputy secretary-generals is approved at conference, then ANC general manager Febe Potgieter would be a shoe-in for the position.

Limpopo premier Stanley Mathabatha would be chairperson with the relatively little known Benjamin Chauke, a Ramaphosa ally, emerging as the unlikely candidate to be the party’s treasurer-general.

“I will not give you the tallies of each and every province but the total tally of nominations. For President Ramaphosa the total is 2,037 and for Dr Zweli Mkhize it is 916. These are the two names nominated for president,” Motlanthe said.

The list should be disappointing to the women and youth lobbies within the ANC who have called for a “gendered generational mix” to lead the party ahead of what is expected to be its toughest election battle in 2024.

Notably out is current party and country deputy president David Mabuza. The results also suggest the irrelevance of the campaigns by Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu, who had also raised their hands to replace Ramaphosa.

Mmamoloko Kubayi, who had styled her campaign as representation of women and those born after or who were too young to wage the Struggle for democracy, failed to make the cut while Ronald Lamola, a proponent of generational takeover of the ANC, got the second most nominations after Mashatile.

The nomination list will be seen as a blow to Mkhize’s aspirations.

Ramaphosa’s slate swept the nomination boards with the best showing by a Mkhize ally being Phumulo Masualle, who came in third on the list, aiming for the office of secretary-general.

ANC conference history suggests that a lot might change between now and December 16 when the ANC gathers. Branches that nominated candidates who failed to make the threshold may decide to give their votes to either candidate, thereby either further increasing Ramaphosa’s lead or giving Mkhize a new lease of life.

Final nomination numbers.

• President: Ramaphosa 2,037 and Mkhize 916.
• Deputy president: Paul Mashatile with 1,791; Ronald Lamola 427 and Oscar Mabuyane 397.
• Chairperson: Stanley Mathabatha 1,492;  Gwede Mantashe 979 and David Masondo 501.
• Secretary-general: Mdumiseni Ntuli 1,225; Phumulo Masualle 889 and Fikile Mbalula 749.
• Treasurer-general: Benjamin Chauke 552; Pule Mabe 428 and Mzwandile Masina 348.