The SA Reserve Bank will raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.25% next Thursday as it tries to rein in quicker inflation, a Reuters poll found.
In a July 7 to 13 poll, 19 of 23 economists expected a half-point hike to 5.25%, with the other four forecasting a larger three-quarters of one percent increase.
The poll found a median 65% probability of a 50 basis point rise and 35% chance of 75 basis points.
“We expect the SARB to hike by 50 basis points in July and September, before returning to 25 basis points increases afterwards,” said Johannes Khosa at Nedbank.
The poll also concluded the SARB would hike another 50 basis points again in September, with a pause until early 2023, when the Bank was expected to hike another 50 basis points by end-March. The Bank meets in January and March.
The Bank has now hiked interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points since November. At its last meeting two months ago, it did so by 50 basis points for the first time since January 2016 to 4.75%.