ANTHONY TURTON | We need to self-correct, make logical decisions to ensure water security

On May 30 2008, I was a guest speaker at the 10th Africa Day Conference hosted by Unisa in Pretoria.

That was the first time I asked whether SA could become a failed state, citing international data on water scarcity. The evidence I cited was visually powerful, but incomplete, so uncompelling.

Yet that data confirmed the work we had been doing at the Council for Scientific & Industrial Research after the publication of the national water resource strategy (NWRS) in 2002.

The NWRS data indicated we had reached the limit of our water resources. We were in need of a model that could inform us about the future. I had been impressed by the work done by Malin Falkenmark, an acclaimed Swedish scientist. She worked on the “hydraulic density of population” which measures the number of people competing for a given unit of water.

She determined that a finite limit of 2,000 people per million litres a year was the limit of known social stability. Any country approaching that “water barrier” would become increasingly unstable, and unless dealt with would eventually disintegrate as a functional state.

Global data was placing us in the same risk category as the Middle East, but we also had a vibrant science, engineering and technology capability – a hangover from our arms development during the sanctions era – so we could avoid a disaster.

By ignoring these warnings, we could see growing anarchy, increased unemployment, loss of investor confidence, and the eventual collapse of the economy. As society approaches the water barrier, policy options need to change. Before we reach the water barrier, the policy is all about building infrastructure to mobilise water for economic development.

After the transition to fundamental water scarcity – when 2,000 people compete for one flow unit of water – the policy must logically be about retaining social cohesion. We must learn how to do better things with the little water we have left. This means protecting our rivers while developing the technology for recycling and recovery of water from waste and the ocean.

My model was about the ability of an organ of state to self-correct. To self-correct, a coherent set of decision-making processes and procedures need to be in place. Data must be interpreted to the point where it triggers a logical decision to do something.

The Vaal River offers a unique case study in state failure because water lettuce was unknown before February 5 2021 when it was first reported to Rand Water. The first person to respond was Francois van Wyk, an environmental scientist and water quality specialist at Rand Water. He launched an investigation on the river itself.

He submitted his first formal report to the monthly management meeting during the second week of March 2021, and Rand Water formally took note of the presence of water lettuce. The plant in question was unknown, so there was no record of its explosive growth rate on SA rivers contaminated by sewage.

The sewage had become an issue a decade earlier, culminating in the deployment of the SA Defence Force in 2019. Officials became alarmed at the level of anger from society, so they started to make a series of flawed decisions. Central to that panic was the ill-advised use of glyphosate, a highly controversial chemical not licensed for use on water lettuce in SA.

The crisis overwhelmed the capacity of the state to respond. It was an emergency, so shortcuts were taken. An invasive plant, unheard of in 2021, has literally overwhelmed the Vaal River in 2024.

In three years, the bureaucratic processes could not avert a disaster that can destroy the river on which 60% of the national economy and about 20-million humans depend. We need to wake up because it is in no one’s interest to live in a failing state.

■ Dr Turton works at centre for environmental management at the University of the Free State