KENNETH MOKGATLHE | Floating voters make KZN key area for ANC and EFF

It is no surprise that the two black largest political formations in SA, ANC and EFF, will host their 2024 manifesto rallies in Durban’s Moses Mabhida Stadium early next year.

Despite its shocking political intolerance incidents such as killings of politicians, KwaZulu-Natal remains an important political capital in the country’s political landscape due to being the second most populated province in the country.

The ANC, EFF and DA know KZN is not only the second-largest populated province in SA. It is also the second-largest economy after Gauteng and contributes about 16% towards the country’s gross domestic product.

KZN has what is termed floating voters, who are characterised by the potential to adjust to new political trends. When Jacob Zuma became the ANC leader in 2007 after the party ’s national elections in Polokwane, many people switched from the IFP to ANC and the KZN became the largest membership base for the ANC.

The EFF’s arrival has threatened the ANC’s popularity. It now appeals to other African countries such as Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe. One of the factors encouraging the EFF and ANC to host in Durban is the fact that this is going to be the first election without the IFP’s Mangosuthu Buthelezi.

Another element is the fact that the DA’s uMngeni mayor, Christopher Pappas, does not only appear to be speaking isiZulu but strikes many people as an honest and ethical leader that voters are so desperate to have as their premier.

Zuma and his supporters are feeling annihilated and isolated by the ANC under Cyril Ramaphosa. The supporters of the former eThekwini mayor, Zandile Gumede, who is facing corruption charges, will not be working for the ANC as they believe that their leader is being persecuted and crucified for her factional position.

The ANC should focus on improving its support in Gauteng rather than attempt to save what it literally cannot. The ANC can lose its outright majority in both KZN and Gauteng provinces and has given up its failed attempts to have the Western Cape under their arms.

The ANC understands that Limpopo, North West, Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free State and Eastern Cape are largely conservative provinces, which will most probably re-elect it into political offices despite inferior service delivery.

People are afraid of losing social welfare grants if they are to votea gainst the party that brought them democracy. We will begin to see more political formations investing more in KZN and Gauteng including Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA or Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance.

Even small parties like the PAC, Azapo or UDM will invest their small resources to get a stake in Gauteng and KZN. It would make sense for these small parties to invest their resources in the provinces or areas that the ANC, EFF and DA are ignoring such as the Northern Cape or North West where theANC is the sole, dominant player.

■ Mokgatlhe is a columnist and political writer. He is currently doing his master’s in African Studies at the Israel-based Ben Gurion University