Stronger rand hints at possible better fuel prices in December
The rand raced to its best level against the dollar in about six weeks on Tuesday morning‚ setting the stage for a potential cut in fuel prices in December.
The stronger rand comes as oil prices have moderated‚ after touching a four-year high in early October.
The results from the US midterm elections appeared to favour risk assets at the expense of the dollar‚ which was weaker against virtually against every other currency.
As predicted‚ the Democrats were on course to secure control of the House of Representatives while the Republications looked set to retain the Senate.
Regarded as the proxy of sentiment towards emerging markets‚ the rand gained as much as 0.59% to R14.03/$‚ before pulling back slightly to trade flat on the day.
Local bonds were just as strong‚ with the yield on the benchmark R186 bond dipping to 9.11%‚ from 9.13% at its last settlement.
The outcome of the elections shifts the balance of power in the US Congress‚ which analysts say will make it harder for president Donald Trump to push through his agenda in the coming months.
“The threat of the Blue Tsunami (Democrats) has officially receded as the GOP (Republicans) will hold the Senate‚ but nonetheless we need to keep things in perspective in the sense that this is only 2018 and not 2020 - so time to curb one’s expectations‚" noted Stephen Innes‚ market analyst at Oanda.
“Volumes have been high‚ and equities remain supported‚ suggesting this outcome is positive for risk since the gridlock outcome ultimately will support the president’s mandate and a higher probability of more fiscal stimulus.”
At 8:53am‚ the rand was 0.10% softer against the dollar at R14.1238‚ 0.19% weaker against the euro at R16.1544 and 0.14% weaker against the pound at R18.5176. The euro was little changed at $1.1437.
Brent crude was at $71.66 a barrel in early trade‚ its lowest level since August 20‚ according to the Iress data.
The relatively stronger rand environment and lower oil prices bode well for the outlook on inflation‚ which held steady at an annual pace of 4.9% in September.