VUSI SHONGWE | It's laughable to insist SA arrest Putin, and here's why

The brouhaha over the Brics summit to be held in SA and the laughable proposed arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin must be understood against this background of the power balance of the new global order, with most of the growth in world production coming from developing and emerging economies.

The importance of China and India in this context should be clearly understood; as the 21st century is often referred to as the “Asian Century”. China and India are today strong economic powers, both having withstood the global economic recession since 2008.

The ascendance of the south, which began in the latter half of the 20th century, has been unprecedented in its pace and outcomes. Never before, argues Rumki Basu in his book Public Administration in the 21st Century: A Global South Perspective, in recorded history, have the living standards of the average masses changed so rapidly in such a compressed time span.

In England, where the Industrial Revolution started, it took 150 years to double its per capita output, while in the US, which industrialised much later, needed about 50 years. Both countries had a population under 10 million when they began to industrialise. In contrast, the current economic resurgence in China and India started with about a billion people in each country.

Some of the largest countries have taken impressive strides, notably China, Brazil, India, Indonesia and SA. According to Basu, by 2050, China, Brazil and India cumulatively, are expected to account for 40% of world output in purchasing power parity terms. .

On this basis, argues Basu, it can be surmised that the world is becoming a better place to live for most people around the globe. However, national averages often conceal large disparities in living conditions. Disturbing inequalities remain within, and between, countries of the north and the south; removing these inequalities will remain the single most difficult challenge in the 21st century.

Regarding to the matter of Putin, and those calling for his arrest when he attends the Brics summit are playing the dangerous game of Russian roulette fraught with unimaginable political repercussions. This is a world leader and not some kind of district mayor . This is a leader of a country that has nuclear weapons which could annihilate the whole world in minutes.

There is a possibility of a nuclear war if the Putin matter is handled recklessly. I am not talking about the wholesale devastation of cities and populations. I am referring to a nuclear exchange in which each side attempts to knock out the other’s strategic forces. This is terrifying enough, bloody enough, the kind of engagement military men think about when they worry about the possibility of nuclear war.

There are different ways of approaching this. Russia is by any definition a major power a super-power. First of all, Russia is strong in a military sense. It is in fact a nuclear power. I am not about to assert that Russia will necessarily threaten military force in order to get its way in any dispute, but there is no denying that having that capacity to fall back on adds strength to its arm in diplomatic negotiation.

Even Kofi Annan, the former UN secretary-general, the world’s foremost negotiating body, once commented that “you can do a lot with diplomacy, but of course you can do a lot more with diplomacy backed up by fairness and force”. One may be convinced of the moral correctness of his or her cause, but unless one can back it up with armed power one will not necessarily carry the day.

Also Russia has a large economic base – perhaps not as large as a year ago, but nevertheless still extremely significant in comparison to most of the other economies of the world. It helps, too, that that economy is based on things like oil and gas that the rest of the world desperately needs. Whether or not Russia has actually used its oil reserves as a weapon, the fact is that it could.

• Shongwe is historian and a writer