ON ITS second birthday last week the Congress of the People hit an all-time low, failing again to ditch its appointed leaders in favour of new ones democratically elected by its members.
The party's warring factions, headed by Mbhazima Shilowa and Mosiuoa Lekota, are now fighting over the Cope "trademark'"- as if it could ever mean control of a political party or the means to attract voters.
The factions share the same plan for the future - oust the other and rebuild Cope's tattered reputation before local government elections in 2011.
This is clearly wishful thinking - not least because the factions have spent about a year cooking up credentials, changing locks, suspending each other before elections and doing everything to topple each other.
A more likely scenario is that Cope "leaders" elected to the national assembly and provincial legislatures will cling to their highly-paid seats until the next general election in 2014.
Human Sciences Research Council senior research specialist Mcebisi Ndletyana says the stalemate benefits both factions.
"They are both reluctant to go to the polls. They prefer the stalemate because if one faction wins, the other people are likely to be recalled from Parliament. It is more about preserving their jobs," Ndletyana says.
Cope stood for nine by-elections in July and lost all of them. In hindsight, the party was doomed to fail from the start. Within two months of its official launch in Bloemfontein, Cope had split. Both factions backed Bishop Mvume Dandala as parliamentary leader in a bid to keep their opponent out of the top job.
Cope never had anything much to distinguish itself from the ANC to begin with. A large percentage of the people who voted for Cope in April 2009, did so because they did not want Jacob Zuma to be president. In the Eastern Cape, people said that a vote for Cope was a vote against Julius Malema, who had committed the "crime" of disrespecting Thabo Mbeki.
Even its leaders were not attractive to voters. Shilowa failed to turn poverty and joblessness around while he was Gauteng premier. And as defence minister, Lekota signed an order for R900 million worth of useless military helicopters and spent much time slamming Patricia de Lille for trying to expose the corruption-riddled arms deal.
None of Cope's policies were different from the ANC's, except their call for the president to be elected by citizens and not by the ruling party. Some of their policies were positively confused - like when their MP, former Cosatu president Willie Madisha, started a union federation, only to find that another Cope MP, Phillip Dexter, had entered into a pact with the DA against a ban on labour brokers.
Rhodes University political science lecturer Richard Pithouse says Cope's demise is predictable.
"The conflict in Cope must be looked at in light of the conflict in the IFP, the ANC, its youth league and the Young Communist League. The reason why bitter factionalism has become endemic in party politics is that none of the parties have an emancipatory vision for society," he says.
"Politics has been reduced to personalities and the sharing of spoils. Unless an emancipatory social vision is recovered, this ongoing fiasco will just get worse," Pithouse says.
He describes emancipatory vision as "a real vision of a just society and a popular strategy to achieve it".
But political analyst Cebo Taho of the Foundation for Contemporary Research says Cope might just survive because South Africans seem to be getting used to political parties airing their dirty laundry in public.
He says that people still vote for the ANC even though it has not delivered. They vote despite its vicious political infighting that is said to have led to assassinations in Mpumalanga.
"Until we have a very conscious base of people who are very critical, who vote for principles rather than leaders, you might find those who thought of Cope as a new Messiah still voting for it."
Taho said since the UDM, DA, ANC and ID still continue to attract support despite their failure to uplift the poor, Cope might attract voters in the same way.
"The burning questions is whether people vote because they think a certain party will do better or because of the spin coming from that party. Zuma's charm offensive is working to a large extent. If the ANC can survive all the questions about lack of delivery, Cope might just survive too, despite its internal rumbling," Taho said.
Ndletyana also is not sure if Cope's voters will abandon it.
"People who voted Cope are most likely disappointed because the way its leaders have conducted themselves goes against the its founding values. Cope has squandered the confidence that people had in it, but its voters are those who shunned the ANC. They are unlikely to vote for the ANC unless it does something differently. Those voters might just stay out," Ndletyana says.
Cope might just survive the squeeze
ON ITS second birthday last week the Congress of the People hit an all-time low, failing again to ditch its appointed leaders in favour of new ones democratically elected by its members.
The party's warring factions, headed by Mbhazima Shilowa and Mosiuoa Lekota, are now fighting over the Cope "trademark'"- as if it could ever mean control of a political party or the means to attract voters.
The factions share the same plan for the future - oust the other and rebuild Cope's tattered reputation before local government elections in 2011.
This is clearly wishful thinking - not least because the factions have spent about a year cooking up credentials, changing locks, suspending each other before elections and doing everything to topple each other.
A more likely scenario is that Cope "leaders" elected to the national assembly and provincial legislatures will cling to their highly-paid seats until the next general election in 2014.
Human Sciences Research Council senior research specialist Mcebisi Ndletyana says the stalemate benefits both factions.
"They are both reluctant to go to the polls. They prefer the stalemate because if one faction wins, the other people are likely to be recalled from Parliament. It is more about preserving their jobs," Ndletyana says.
Cope stood for nine by-elections in July and lost all of them. In hindsight, the party was doomed to fail from the start. Within two months of its official launch in Bloemfontein, Cope had split. Both factions backed Bishop Mvume Dandala as parliamentary leader in a bid to keep their opponent out of the top job.
Cope never had anything much to distinguish itself from the ANC to begin with. A large percentage of the people who voted for Cope in April 2009, did so because they did not want Jacob Zuma to be president. In the Eastern Cape, people said that a vote for Cope was a vote against Julius Malema, who had committed the "crime" of disrespecting Thabo Mbeki.
Even its leaders were not attractive to voters. Shilowa failed to turn poverty and joblessness around while he was Gauteng premier. And as defence minister, Lekota signed an order for R900 million worth of useless military helicopters and spent much time slamming Patricia de Lille for trying to expose the corruption-riddled arms deal.
None of Cope's policies were different from the ANC's, except their call for the president to be elected by citizens and not by the ruling party. Some of their policies were positively confused - like when their MP, former Cosatu president Willie Madisha, started a union federation, only to find that another Cope MP, Phillip Dexter, had entered into a pact with the DA against a ban on labour brokers.
Rhodes University political science lecturer Richard Pithouse says Cope's demise is predictable.
"The conflict in Cope must be looked at in light of the conflict in the IFP, the ANC, its youth league and the Young Communist League. The reason why bitter factionalism has become endemic in party politics is that none of the parties have an emancipatory vision for society," he says.
"Politics has been reduced to personalities and the sharing of spoils. Unless an emancipatory social vision is recovered, this ongoing fiasco will just get worse," Pithouse says.
He describes emancipatory vision as "a real vision of a just society and a popular strategy to achieve it".
But political analyst Cebo Taho of the Foundation for Contemporary Research says Cope might just survive because South Africans seem to be getting used to political parties airing their dirty laundry in public.
He says that people still vote for the ANC even though it has not delivered. They vote despite its vicious political infighting that is said to have led to assassinations in Mpumalanga.
"Until we have a very conscious base of people who are very critical, who vote for principles rather than leaders, you might find those who thought of Cope as a new Messiah still voting for it."
Taho said since the UDM, DA, ANC and ID still continue to attract support despite their failure to uplift the poor, Cope might attract voters in the same way.
"The burning questions is whether people vote because they think a certain party will do better or because of the spin coming from that party. Zuma's charm offensive is working to a large extent. If the ANC can survive all the questions about lack of delivery, Cope might just survive too, despite its internal rumbling," Taho said.
Ndletyana also is not sure if Cope's voters will abandon it.
"People who voted Cope are most likely disappointed because the way its leaders have conducted themselves goes against the its founding values. Cope has squandered the confidence that people had in it, but its voters are those who shunned the ANC. They are unlikely to vote for the ANC unless it does something differently. Those voters might just stay out," Ndletyana says.
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