Energy expert warns of possible stage 8 loadshedding as Eskom delays shutting down Koeberg

An energy analyst has warned there is a high risk of stage 8 loadshedding as Eskom announced delays in the scheduled outage of a unit at Koeberg nuclear power station to buy time to stabilise its generating system.

On Thursday morning, Eskom announced the scheduled shutdown of Koeberg's unit 1, due for refuelling and maintenance, will be delayed.

Independent energy analyst Lungile Mashele said the risk of stage 8 load-shedding is increasing.

On Wednesday, the power utility implemented stage 6 loadshedding after more breakdowns increased unavailable capacity to 19,052MW.

“To have more than 19,052MW unavailable due to breakdowns is shocking. That is a record. We’ve never seen numbers like that,” Mashele said.

“Stage 8 doesn’t mean it is the end. It doesn’t mean when we get there we are going to have a blackout. Stage 8 will be 12-14 hours of no electricity a day.”

Mashele said it was time Eskom reviewed its outage system as higher stages have become a possibility.

“In 2008 when they came up with stages 1 to 8, I don’t think they ever thought we were going to get there. They need to revise that and be realistic with what is happening on the system and tell us what stage 12 or 15 will look like.

“When the [Eskom] board came in September, they said they will evaluate what is wrong and come up with remedial action. What is their plan?”

Mashele said South Africa uses about 29,000MW a day on average, so to have 19,000MW not available was shocking.

On Wednesday afternoon, Eskom said stage 6 loadshedding will continue until 5am on Friday and then be reduced to stage 5. 

“We have 4,984MW on planned maintenance while 19,052MW is unavailable due to breakdowns. Due to the depletion of the budget to acquire diesel for the open cycle gas turbines, Eskom has been forced to preserve the remaining diesel for extreme emergency situations such as multiple, simultaneous trips of generators,” Eskom said.

Eskom has warned that loadshedding will increase in the next six to 12 months due to planned maintenance at some power stations. 

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