THE electoral contest in the cities of Tshwane and Johannesburg are too close to call under a medium turnout scenario‚ international polling agency Ipsos said on Monday.
Party support during Wednesday’s local government polls will deliver 54% of the vote to the African National Congress (ANC) under a medium voter turnout scenario (62% in 2011) the agency said‚ the Democratic Alliance (DA) 26% (23.6%) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 8% (n/a)‚ Ipsos said.
The pre-election “Pulse of the People” was conducted in June and July. The study consisted of 3861 interviews with a representative sample of South Africans. The margin of error for this sample size is between 0.7% — 1.6%.
The report concludes that‚ with significant margins of errors ranging from 1.3% to 8%‚ the DA will exceed ANC votes in the contested Nelson Mandela Bay Metro (44% to 37%)‚ but receive less votes in Tshwane and Johannesburg (47% to 43% and 46% to 41%). The EFF will receive between 6% and 9% across these metros‚ the report reads.
Ipsos’ Monday survey is somewhat at odds its last poll on Thursday‚ which showed the DA ahead of the ANC‚ but with all parties having lower proportions of the vote.
Critical to party performance‚ however‚ will be ensuring their supporters turn out to vote in Wednesday’s polls‚ with voters in SA and international consistently less likely to vote in local government polls as compared to national polls.
Turnout in 2011 was 57.5%‚ with Ipsos estimating that a low turnout would see 10.2-million cast their ballots‚ and 17.5-million under a medium scenario.
The survey estimates that turnout will be higher in 2016 than in 2011‚ despite high levels of general dissatisfaction.
Other stats from the poll include:
- 33% said they would seriously consider not voting due to dissatisfaction
— 44% agreed with the statement: “There is no political party that represents my views.”
— 50% agreed SA was headed in the wrong direction.
— 54% agreed with the statement: “The government only thinks about the interests of members of the ANC.”
The poll also asked respondents to evaluate high-profile political leaders out of a maximum score of 10‚ with EFF leader Julius Malema receiving the lowest score (3.1) and ANC deputy president Cyril Rampahosa the highest (5.7). ANC president Jacob Zuma received 4.9‚ and DA leader Mmusi Maimane 4.5.
Live results, cool maps, fierce battlegrounds: follow the local elections on our web app:http://bit.ly/2apwZKU
Tshwane‚ Joburg too close to call‚ ‘Pulse of the People’ poll finds
THE electoral contest in the cities of Tshwane and Johannesburg are too close to call under a medium turnout scenario‚ international polling agency Ipsos said on Monday.
Party support during Wednesday’s local government polls will deliver 54% of the vote to the African National Congress (ANC) under a medium voter turnout scenario (62% in 2011) the agency said‚ the Democratic Alliance (DA) 26% (23.6%) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 8% (n/a)‚ Ipsos said.
The pre-election “Pulse of the People” was conducted in June and July. The study consisted of 3861 interviews with a representative sample of South Africans. The margin of error for this sample size is between 0.7% — 1.6%.
The report concludes that‚ with significant margins of errors ranging from 1.3% to 8%‚ the DA will exceed ANC votes in the contested Nelson Mandela Bay Metro (44% to 37%)‚ but receive less votes in Tshwane and Johannesburg (47% to 43% and 46% to 41%). The EFF will receive between 6% and 9% across these metros‚ the report reads.
Ipsos’ Monday survey is somewhat at odds its last poll on Thursday‚ which showed the DA ahead of the ANC‚ but with all parties having lower proportions of the vote.
Critical to party performance‚ however‚ will be ensuring their supporters turn out to vote in Wednesday’s polls‚ with voters in SA and international consistently less likely to vote in local government polls as compared to national polls.
Turnout in 2011 was 57.5%‚ with Ipsos estimating that a low turnout would see 10.2-million cast their ballots‚ and 17.5-million under a medium scenario.
The survey estimates that turnout will be higher in 2016 than in 2011‚ despite high levels of general dissatisfaction.
Other stats from the poll include:
- 33% said they would seriously consider not voting due to dissatisfaction
— 44% agreed with the statement: “There is no political party that represents my views.”
— 50% agreed SA was headed in the wrong direction.
— 54% agreed with the statement: “The government only thinks about the interests of members of the ANC.”
The poll also asked respondents to evaluate high-profile political leaders out of a maximum score of 10‚ with EFF leader Julius Malema receiving the lowest score (3.1) and ANC deputy president Cyril Rampahosa the highest (5.7). ANC president Jacob Zuma received 4.9‚ and DA leader Mmusi Maimane 4.5.
Live results, cool maps, fierce battlegrounds: follow the local elections on our web app:http://bit.ly/2apwZKU
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