The ruling African National Congress may see a decline in support in the upcoming local government elections and possibly also in the next national and provincial elections scheduled for 2019 and 2024.
This is according to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) which recently conducted a study in which they broadly classified two competing factions within the ANC.
ISS dived the two as “traditionalists” and “reformers“.
The study describes traditionalists as those loyal to President Jacob Zuma‚ who “endorse socially conservative and highly redistributive policies‚ and a commitment to a centralised state“.
On the other hand‚ reformers are “largely composed of urban social democrats with a commitment to inclusive economic growth“‚ the analysis states.
“The former are paternalistic insiders‚ currently benefiting from the status quo‚ while the latter are generally outsiders‚ vying to gain access to the rich bounty of resources from which they are currently excluded‚” ISS states.
Zuma‚ who is currently serving his second term as ANC president‚ admitted earlier this year during the ANC’s Rustenburg 104th anniversary‚ that this year’s local government elections are going to be one of the toughest for the ruling party.
In the analysis‚ ISS noted a number of key milestones between now and 2024.
It says these will contribute to raising the political temperature between these two groups‚ and will determine the country’s rate of economic and social progress.
“These include the municipal government elections scheduled for August 2016 and a likely international investment rating downgrade towards the latter part of 2016‚ or early in 2017. A third key milestone is the election of a new president of the ANC in December 2017 (or earlier – should Zuma step down in response to growing pressure for him to do so)‚” they stated.
Facts don’t lie.
Support for the ANC is on a downward trajectory‚ from a high of 70% in 2004 to 62% in the 2014 national elections. Furthermore‚ protest is growing increasingly violent and election-related. Recent protests in Gauteng‚ Tshwane to be precise‚ North West and KwaZulu-Natal are classic examples.
“Our forecast – detailed in a recent Institute for Security Studies publication titled South Africa scenarios 2024 – suggests that the ANC could lose its national majority by 2024. This could happen as early as 2019 if the ANC splits in 2018‚ as we think could happen‚” ISS said.
All of this depends on the outcomes of the National Conference set for December 2017‚ when the party elects the 86 members of its National Executive Council (NEC) – including a new president.
ANC set to lose votes
The ruling African National Congress may see a decline in support in the upcoming local government elections and possibly also in the next national and provincial elections scheduled for 2019 and 2024.
This is according to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) which recently conducted a study in which they broadly classified two competing factions within the ANC.
ISS dived the two as “traditionalists” and “reformers“.
The study describes traditionalists as those loyal to President Jacob Zuma‚ who “endorse socially conservative and highly redistributive policies‚ and a commitment to a centralised state“.
On the other hand‚ reformers are “largely composed of urban social democrats with a commitment to inclusive economic growth“‚ the analysis states.
“The former are paternalistic insiders‚ currently benefiting from the status quo‚ while the latter are generally outsiders‚ vying to gain access to the rich bounty of resources from which they are currently excluded‚” ISS states.
Zuma‚ who is currently serving his second term as ANC president‚ admitted earlier this year during the ANC’s Rustenburg 104th anniversary‚ that this year’s local government elections are going to be one of the toughest for the ruling party.
In the analysis‚ ISS noted a number of key milestones between now and 2024.
It says these will contribute to raising the political temperature between these two groups‚ and will determine the country’s rate of economic and social progress.
“These include the municipal government elections scheduled for August 2016 and a likely international investment rating downgrade towards the latter part of 2016‚ or early in 2017. A third key milestone is the election of a new president of the ANC in December 2017 (or earlier – should Zuma step down in response to growing pressure for him to do so)‚” they stated.
Facts don’t lie.
Support for the ANC is on a downward trajectory‚ from a high of 70% in 2004 to 62% in the 2014 national elections. Furthermore‚ protest is growing increasingly violent and election-related. Recent protests in Gauteng‚ Tshwane to be precise‚ North West and KwaZulu-Natal are classic examples.
“Our forecast – detailed in a recent Institute for Security Studies publication titled South Africa scenarios 2024 – suggests that the ANC could lose its national majority by 2024. This could happen as early as 2019 if the ANC splits in 2018‚ as we think could happen‚” ISS said.
All of this depends on the outcomes of the National Conference set for December 2017‚ when the party elects the 86 members of its National Executive Council (NEC) – including a new president.
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