Bulls face Cheetahs to decide South African dominance

South Africa's Bulls can follow New Zealand side the Chiefs in cementing their regional dominance in Super Rugby with a win over nearest rivals the Cheetahs in the last match of the 16th round on Saturday.

The Hamilton-based Chiefs beat the Christchurch-based Crusaders last weekend to stretch their lead to 10 points in the New Zealand conference of the southern hemisphere tournament.

If the Pretoria-based Bulls can beat the Cheetahs at Bloemfontein on Saturday they could establish a lead of similar magnitude in South Africa, leaving only the Australian region in dispute as the tournament nears its break for June internationals.

The ACT Brumbies currently enjoy a five point break over the Queensland Reds in the Australian conference, a gap which depends on the outcome of matches this weekend between the Brumbies and Wellington-based Hurricanes and the Reds and Melbourne Rebels.

Behind the three conference leaders the contest for places in the top-six playoffs zone has become more tense, given urgency by the approach of the test window. The Cheetahs are currently in fourth place with 45 points, ahead of the Reds - also on 45 points - and the Crusaders with 42 points.

The Auckland-based Blues, in seventh place, also have 42 points and lead the New South Wales Waratahs (39), the Wellington-based Hurricanes (38) and the Durban-based Sharks and Cape Town-based Stormers, both with 34.

Four rounds remain in the regular season, including next weekend's all-Australian round, scheduled to make room for the impending tour of Australia by the British and Irish Lions. In last year's 17-round regular season, the Sharks claimed the last top-six place with 59 championship points and a similar number may be necessary to seal a playoffs spot this season.

That equation suggests the playoffs may be beyond the reach of the Hurricanes, Sharks and Stormers who would have to win all of their remaining matches with bonus points to be certain of finishing among the top-six teams. Their playoffs chances will also depend on the results of other games.

The 59-point threshold also suggests that none of the teams currently among the top six can rest easy. The Chiefs top the table after last week's win over the Crusaders with 52 points, ahead of the Bulls and Brumbies with 50, and will pick up an extra four points from their bye in this weekend's round. They then finish the regular season with three tough derby matches against the Hurricanes, Crusaders and Blues.

The Bulls also finish with a series of derbies, following this weekend's match against the Cheetahs with games against the Kings, Sharks and Stormers. The Brumbies follow their 17th-round match against the Hurricanes with matches against the Rebels and Western Force, although they have two byes to come due to the Lions' tour.

The Cheetahs will face the Stormers and Blues before ending their season with a bye, while the Reds have a three-week break after this weekend's match against the Rebels and finish with a match against their traditional rivals the Waratahs.

The Crusaders finish with matches against the Waratahs, Highlanders, Chiefs and Hurricanes.

The Bulls will take a significant step toward the playoffs if they can again fend off the strong challenge of the Cheetahs, whom they beat 26-20 in round nine. They are unbeaten since that match while the Cheetahs have won four of their five matches since they played the Bulls in Pretoria.

Bulls coach Frans Ludeke has made four changes to the lineup that edged the Sharks 18-16 in Durban last week, naming youngsters Arno Botha and Jan Serfontein, and the experienced Werner Kruger and Lionel Mapoe in his starting side, replacing Dewald Potgieter, Wynand Olivier, Frik Kirsten and Akona Ndungane.

"We can do ourselves a lot of favors by beating the Cheetahs this weekend, especially ahead of the three weeks break (for June tests)," Ludeke said. "We will have a number of players involved in the test series and you never know in what shape they will come back."

Captain Pierre Spies said the Bulls' win over the Cheetahs six weeks ago could not be relied on as a pointer to Saturday's match.

"The fact that we have beaten them earlier in the season counts for nothing," he said. "They play on their home turf and although we have done well there in the past, that is not worth any points on the scoreboard.

"We need to go out there, impose ourselves and play the right type of rugby we know we are capable of. It is a massive challenge, but this team thrives on those."

Cheetahs coach Naka Drotske, who has promoted Springboks winger Raymond Rhule from the bench in the only change to his starting XV, said Saturday's match was crucial to his team's playoffs bid.

"Look, there are other big matches to come after the test window, a couple of big derbies, but this is a big one for us, the make-or-break" Drotske said.

"That performance (against the Bulls in round nine) gave the guys a lot of confidence and we know that had we not made a few crucial individual errors we would have won the game. It's a lesson I think we've learned from."

The Brumbies must beat the Hurricanes to retain control of the Australian conference and to press for their first playoffs appearance in eight years. They missed last year's top-six by a single point and are determined to avoid a similar fate with a misstep late in the season.

The Brumbies will lose five players to the Wallabies' camp next week while the Reds are guaranteed four points from a bye as the only Australian team not engaged in next weekend's round.

"We had a slip against a team we should have beaten - the Kings - a while ago," flyhalf Matt Toomua said. "This week we want to win and need to win."