Key political risks in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s opponents are piling pressure on his military and security command to stop meddling in politics following threats that the Army will not accept an opposition victory

But analysts say the campaign by rival and unity government partner Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai for security sector reforms is unlikely to rein in generals loyal to Mugabe, who contemptuously dismiss Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) as a Western stooge.     

Friction has been growing in an already troubled unity government formed after disputed elections in 2008 when the impoverished country’s economy was being crushed by hyperinflation.     

Tsvangirai says he will unseat Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party  from 30 years of power if there are comprehensive reforms for a free and fair election, planned for next year.     

But privately Tsvangirai concedes Mugabe could press ahead with an early vote based on just a few reforms, such as a partial opening up of the media, tight deadlines for vote results and the repeal of laws restricting political gatherings.     

Mugabe, 87, says ZANU-PF is ready to put new constitutional reforms to a vote before elections this year — about two years ahead of schedule — but he insists it will not allow opponents to use this to delay polls or to stifle his nationalisation programme criticised by international investors.     

LOCAL OWNERSHIP     

Mugabe has turned the heat on foreign-owned mines after the government set a September 30 deadline for mining firms to transfer majority stakes to locals.     

The unity government of the resource-rich state has sent mixed signals to foreign investors, with Mugabe’s ZANU-PF threatening takeovers and MDC officials painting a rosy picture of an emerging economy where overseas capital will be safe.     

Tsvangirai has denounced Mugabe’s plans as “looting and plunder” by a greedy elite.     

What to watch:     

    — How mining companies will react to the short timeline set by the government and impact on new investment in the sector.     

    — Establishment of an anti-sanctions fund.     

    — Central bank penalties for foreign-owned banks     

MILITARY REFORMS     

Controversial Brigadier-General Douglas Nyikayaramba said   Tsvangirai was a security threat fronting Western interests, which justified military involvement in politics.

Mugabe has dismissed demands for security sector reforms and ZANU-PF says mediators want to block the regional security block, Southern African Development Community (SADC), from interfering with the command of the security services.     

What to watch:     

    — SADC’s reaction to Tsvangirai’s appeal for mediation.     

    — Mugabe’s stance beyond polite agreement that generals should desist from making public statements on politics.     

POLITICAL VIOLENCE     

Pro-Mugabe veterans of Zimbabwe’s 1970s independence war and ZANU-PF youth brigades have stepped up countrywide campaigns, sparking turf wars with MDC supporters.     

The rivals blame each other for the violence, which caused thousands to flee to neighbouring South Africa in 2008 and leading to a migrant crisis that Pretoria is still trying to sort out.     

What to watch?     

    — A crackdown on journalists and ZANU-PF opponents in a bid to forestall Egyptian-style, anti-Mugabe protests.     

    — Reactions from influential regional leaders, especially South African President Jacob Zuma, who is the region’s mediator in the Zimbabwe political crisis.     

CRACKDOWN ON CRITICS     

Security officials have arrested dozens of political activists accused of plotting anti-Mugabe protests similar to those that toppled long-standing leaders in Egypt and Tunisia.     

Most were freed by the courts. Five, who were initially charged with treason, are now being tried on lesser charges of inciting public violence.     

Police have arrested a senior Tsvangirai ally on corruption charges which have been dismissed by the courts and several MDC members of parliament for political violence in what the party says is selective prosecution.     

Analysts say Tsvangirai and his lieutenants have legitimate complaints against Mugabe over outstanding reforms, but there is growing frustration among his supporters that he is being outwitted by Mugabe, a cunning political veteran.     

They say Tsvangirai has failed to reverse Mugabe’s land grabs and appears weak to stop the nationalisation drive.     

What to watch:      

    — Any moves against foreign-funded civic organisations involved in election education and monitoring work.     

CONSTITUTION     

A multi-party parliamentary committee leading a review of the constitution says it will respect the wishes of ordinary Zimbabweans, but the final charter is likely to be a compromise between ZANU-PF and MDC, who both lack a two-thirds majority in parliament needed to pass the new supreme law on their own.     

A referendum on a draft not backed by either party would likely trigger violence.     

What to watch:     

    — Compromise deal. Many Zimbabweans hope a new charter, replacing the pre-independence document, will strengthen the role of parliament, curtail presidential powers and guarantee civil, political and media liberties.     

    — ZANU-PF reaction to prolonged delays in the crafting of the new constitution.      

ANTI-SANCTIONS CAMPAIGN     

ZANU-PF says it has gathered 2 million signatures for a petition against Western sanctions against Mugabe and his circle that it says have ruined the economy.     

The MDC is not supporting the campaign because it does not believe ZANU-PF has reformed enough for removal of the embargo.     

What to watch:     

    — How the MDC responds to the anti-sanctions drive which ZANU-PF is sure to use as part of an election campaign.      

Source: Reuters