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Phobias, racism behind Brexit

A vote LEAVE supporter takes a photo of Parliament from outside Vote Leave HQ, Westminster Tower on June 24, 2016 in London, England. The United Kingdom has gone to the polls to decide whether or not the country wishes to remain within the European Union. After a hard fought campaign from both REMAIN and LEAVE the vote is awaiting a final declaration and the United Kingdom is projected to have voted to LEAVE the European Union. Picture Credit: Getty Images/Chris J Ratcliffe
A vote LEAVE supporter takes a photo of Parliament from outside Vote Leave HQ, Westminster Tower on June 24, 2016 in London, England. The United Kingdom has gone to the polls to decide whether or not the country wishes to remain within the European Union. After a hard fought campaign from both REMAIN and LEAVE the vote is awaiting a final declaration and the United Kingdom is projected to have voted to LEAVE the European Union. Picture Credit: Getty Images/Chris J Ratcliffe

Britain's decision to leave the European Union goes against the flow of traffic and logic.

Fuelled by narrow phobias and racism intended to keep "those others" out of Britain, it possibly ushers in a new form of isolationism that Britain itself will regret.

There are multiple dimensions to the impact on Britain and African countries, many of whom still harbour odd sentiment for the old colonial relationship.

Firstly, the Brexit will potentially diminish the trade links between African nations and the UK, potentially causing a sharp decline in trade flows.

Negotiators will have to rethink about 100 trade agreements. The current menu of agreements took on average five to 12 years to reach consensus on. The most notable of these in recent years have been the EU-SADC Economic Partnership Agreement [EPA].

The EPA is actually a horrible deal for nearly all African countries, including South Africa, though it claims to enable free access to the EU [including Britain] for certain SADC countries. The access is granted in return for liberalising local markets, decreased labour protection, and virtually unfettered EU access to local markets.

The cost of a SADC country to access EU markets comes with a 1000 strings of strenuous and costly requirements that African countries must comply with in order to access Europe.

Prior to this, the UK relied on the formidable Brussels machinery to negotiate these agreements, and it will take them years to rebuild this capacity.

In the meantime, South Africa is not the only economy to feel the shock. Nigeria is also trying to find its balance, as large economies have the largest share of UK to Africa trade.

Brit-optimists believe that the Brexit will eventually lead to a smaller, more efficiently run EU with similar terms of access for other exiters.

Others, like myself, believe that the UK will go into recession, and this could impact on various African economies.

The pound seemed to agree and free-fell as soon as the vote was announced.

The already skittish rand danced along with the pound before coming to its senses. Experts suggest that South Africa will lose 0.1% of GDP. However, the key industries in which Britain trades are financial services and quarrying and mining, which do not necessarily drive job creation, transfer of skills, transformation of economic structure and are often exploitive.

Most of these are in South Africa, which means that the rest of the African continent [except for Nigeria] may sneeze slightly and then recover from this turn of events.

However, most countries will have to renegotiate with the UK as an individual country.

One hopes that African countries will remind the UK to "go to the back of the queue" and expect no special favours and negotiate terms that are far more in keeping with our own growing economic confidence and global reach.

Although there is a risk of a contagion, it is still possible that the current South African economy is able to rely on other international (including intra-African) trade partners to offset the already high unemployment, slow growth and weak currency. In short, the Brexit is the cherry on top of a tall cake of existing issues and, although disruptive, might not be a long-term destabiliser.

Secondly, one of the largest effects of Britain's political bungee jump is the decline of Britain's international posture, including towards African countries. The Brits have become a minor player post-Margaret Thatcher with a very brief resurgence during the UK presidency of the G8 in 2005.

Thirdly, though, the UK's ridiculous myopia has a massive impact on how people relate to each other.

As an international relations model, it signals a surrender to rabidly exclusionist politics, the kind of which Boris Johnson and Donald Trump favour.

The Brexit was a de facto referendum on migration, and Britain showed it preferred to return to the Dark Ages where the world was believed to be flat.

The UK claims that it does not want excessive movement of people, and yet over 100000 South African nurses are propping up Britain's healthcare system. South Africa and the rest of the world should be concerned about the far-right because it is not so far and seemingly not so right. It is now a wave of politics that represents an increasingly explicit core. Movement of people is a part of the progressive human rights and dignity approach. We should be very careful as we work towards improving our moribund African Union not to repeat similar exclusionist practices.

But, more so, the disarray in Europe should provide vigilant African leaders with the sort of impetus to play much harder ball with Britain and the EU.

They need to make demands for easier terms of access to markets, fulfilment of international aid promises and demands for the EU and its now distant cousin the UK to take different decisions on international platforms such as the UN and International Criminal Court.

The posture of African countries should reflect the fact that there are now many poles of global power and they are no longer confined to Europe and the US.

Pheko is an activist scholar, public intellectual, columnist and senior research fellow at Trade Collective

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