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Downgrade could cost SA the loss of 200 000 jobs

HOPING FOR BEST: Chief economist and global head of research of Standard Bank Goolam Ballim talks about the expected downgrade of the South African economy Photo: Thulani Mbele
HOPING FOR BEST: Chief economist and global head of research of Standard Bank Goolam Ballim talks about the expected downgrade of the South African economy Photo: Thulani Mbele

Standard Bank's chief economist Goolam Ballim has slammed President Jacob Zuma, describing him as a weakened and compromised man who is presiding over a compromised executive.

"Over the last five or six months . we would say that President Zuma is somehow a weakened individual, that the ANC itself has recognised that an absence of sanction on the president, and I quote ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, would be showing society the middle finger, is recognition of more sober considerations that have surfaced over the last couple of months surrounding the president's conduct in certain areas and the thrust of the ANC," Ballim said.

"The last few months have revealed that President Zuma is a compromised man, presiding over a compromised executive delivering compromised programmes. And from within the party, the very fact that there has been so much challenge . speaks to the want for reform . and rebuilding of the ANC's historical towering credentials and that contest will remain with us in the coming weeks and months."

Ballim said this yesterday in Johannesburg while delivering a study that compared countries that have had their ratings downgraded to a sub-investment grade and the consequences on their economies.

He was referring to Zuma in December replacing then finance minister Nhlanhla Nene with a parliamentary back-bencher Des van Rooyen. Four days later, Van Rooyen was replaced by current minister Pravin Gordhan. Nene's axing wiped out hundreds of billions of rands from the stock market and saw the rand plummet to more than R17 against the US dollar amid fears that Zuma's family friends were attempting to capture National Treasury.

Standard Bank was also one of the "Big Four" banks that recently announced they would cut ties with the Guptas' businesses. The Guptas are friends of the president.

Ballim attributed his view to the Constitutional Court judgment that found Zuma failed to uphold and defend the constitution. He said Zuma has behaved consistently in the sense of capturing institutions. "However, while consistent, he also over-reached."

Ballim said the economy, estimated to grow by 0.6% this year, will, if downgraded by ratings agency Standard & Poor's, see its growth rate tumbling by negative 0.3%. "A sub-investment status will usher in a recession, at least 200 000 jobs are at risk and more than 600000 dependants blighted.

"I have the hope that Standard & Poor's . provides SA with a reprieve. However, sensible-minded firms or households should prepare for a downgrade and implement some form of fortification ."

ANC spokesman Zizi Kodwa said: "We won't comment on personal comments by Standard Bank. We are waiting for ratings agencies' reports."

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