Those who want to lead must be scrutinised on live TV
The outcome of the KwaZulu-Natal election affords us an opportunity to diagnose the political landscape between now and 2019.
Understandably, the focus of the ANC fraternity is riveted on 2017 when its annual general conference will elect a new leadership to take the movement to the next general election in 2019 and beyond.
To see the outcome of the KZN and all other ANC elections through the prism of this 2017 mystical date is unhelpful, to say the least. It is in fact politically naïve.
Despite the ANC's moratorium on debating potential candidates for the presidency now, nobody is taking the instruction seriously. How do you stop the members from speculating or clandestinely expressing their honest preferences? The phoney attitude of "I have no ambitions until the branches of the ANC instruct me to avail myself for any position" is patently dishonest.
We live in a democracy, albeit not in a disciplined one. Until the red-beretted EFF stormed the political scene, political contestation had narrowed down to ANC versus DA. Those days are over. South African voters will not be deprived of fun and excitement in this year's local government elections.
At its recent congress, Cosatu affiliates have openly defied the charade and declared that Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa should be anointed, well ahead of 2017. For their part, the ANC Women's League (ANCWL) and the ANC Youth League (ANCYL) are supporting the candidacy of AU Commission chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
A fragmented Cosatu, the new leadership in the ANCWL and ANCYL may no longer enjoy the political clout they used to command. Significant players like the religious sector, business, middle class, intelligentsia, youth and organised civil society may well play a decisive role.
This year's local government elections can be used as an ideal guinea pig to experiment with a new style of electioneering. If, for example, voters have confidence in their candidates I see no reason why they cannot be subjected to public scrutiny.
Let's have public TV and radio debates. By so doing, the electorate will know who wants to lead them and what they are bringing to the party. They will also "own" the best candidate rather than feel an unworthy leader has been imposed on them.
Nobody is advocating the US system of primaries. It is too expensive. But live debates would minimise the cloak and dagger, vicious back-stabbing tendencies that characterise contestation for leadership. If their choice messes up later in office, the voters can take responsibility for making a wrong judgment.
Back to KZN. It is a shame that premier Senzo Mchunu's supporters are rightly or wrongly disputing the results of the provincial election. At the 2005 national general council and 2007 annual conference, KZN was a unified block. They had the numbers and a unified leadership.
Young Sihle Zikalala's power lies in keeping KZN united as a voting block, to which other provinces will be invited to join. If he can achieve that he will be home and dry. Failure to do so will throw the campaign wide open, with unpredictable consequences.
Wisdom cautions us that one week is a long time in politics. Even a minor incident can decide the victory or defeat of a political leader, like a gaffe, scandal or unceremonious withdrawal from the race. The time between now and 2017 is long.
On the national scene, the ANC will be expected to manage the gossip, ill-discipline, rumour-mongering, brown envelopes, slates, character assassinations and not-so-friendly media coverage. But before the 2017D-Day, parties registered with the IEC are poised to slug it out in the 2016 local government elections.
Everybody deems these elections as the most critical since the 1994 general election. It is speculated that they will impact on the 2019 general election.
While there is plenty of speculation about the 2016 elections, one thing is sure: it is not going to be a boring or dull affair!
Mkhatshwa is chairman of the Moral Regeneration Movement