'The more unsure he becomes of his sway in the ANC, the more populist he will sound'
AS DELEGATES walked out of the main hall at Gallagher Estate in Midrand on Friday night, a large crowd was standing at the exit singing and waving pro-Jacob Zuma placards.
"Mawushisa iskipa s'kaZuma, sizok'shaya ngevolovolo" (If you burn a Zuma T-shirt, we'll hit you with a revolver.)
The song, obviously referring to the practice of some ANC structures to burn images of leaders they do not like, was meant to intimidate those supporting Zuma's challengers.
This scene, and earlier scenes of open campaigning by supporters of apparent rival Kgalema Motlanthe, belied the assertions of the ANC leadership that the policy conference was free of tensions over the ANC leadership contestation.
In the words of the hierarchy, this was all a figment of journalists' imaginations. Delegates had come to the conference to debate policy, not leadership issues, they repeatedly said.
Of course nobody believed them.
The build-up to the policy conference was all about Mangaung, with Gallagher as a refuelling station.
Zuma crisscrossed the country attending every ANC and tripartite alliance gathering he could fit into his diary. He sold the second transition document as the answer to the ANC and the country's problems. His backers made it clear that they had to win the second transition battle on his behalf.
His language has become increasingly militant.
The adoption of the document was therefore going to be his victory and a clearing of the path to victory in Mangaung.
Zuma walked into conference a very confident leader, but with doubts lingering over what he had previously believed was an unassailable hold on the party.
Most of the ANC and tripartite structures that had recently held conferences had re-elected his backers, which gave him some comfort.
But recently Motlanthe and Tokyo Sexwale tentatively hinted that they may be interested in his position and many in the party were warming to the alternatives to the incumbent. Zuma realised he could not take re-election for granted. He had to work hard for it.
By the end of the conference a still confident but less assured Zuma was disowning the original second transition document, saying it was a national executive committee document and not tied to an individual - himself.
The use of a document as proxy for leadership battles mirrored the 2007 policy conference, when Thabo Mbeki's followers tied his re-election campaign to the so-called "two centres of power" debate.
The idea of the debate, so the conspiracy theorists averred, was to make Luthuli House the sole "centre of power".
If Mbeki were re-elected for a third ANC term and constitutional law prevented him from serving a third term at the Union Buildings, the president of the republic post-2009 would still dance to the tune of the party president.
Mbeki lost that debate and from then on he was on shaky ground, ultimately losing to Zuma in Polokwane.
This is not to say that Zuma is on the same downhill slope Mbeki was on in the second half of 2007.
The chinks in the armour are, however, now visible.
He is now being openly challenged and defied by not only the ANC Youth League but by a much broader critical mass.
The road to re-election to a second term is no longer as smooth as it seemed when the ANC's centenary year began.
Defeat in the second transition debate was no small loss for the president. It was a very clear indicator of his precarious hold on power.
That is why the president is mimicking Julius Malema and trying to occupy the militant space that the former youth league leader once occupied.
Listen to his rhetoric of late: "The economic power relations of the apartheid era have in the main remained intact. The ownership of the economy is still primarily in the hands of white males as it has always been," he thundered at the conference, telling the nation the obvious.
He spoke of how poverty and inequality gave him "sleepless nights" and hence the need for a "radical shift" in policy.
This new radicalism would require a stronger hand in the project of economic transformation.
When he closed the conference on Friday, Zuma was as militant as he was on Tuesday, warning of dire consequences if economic transformation was not speeded up.
"We will put democracy at grave risk," the president warned darkly.
"Those who feel the pain may one day say 'enough is enough'."
Zuma's strong language moved the youth league to boast that the positions they had been pushing over the past few years were winning favour in the ANC.
This is a pattern we are likely to see continue as Mangaung creeps closer.
Having elbowed the young man out of the way, Zuma will increasingly become Malema.
He will say irresponsible and emotive statements in order to touch the raw nerves that Malema was able to do.
And the more unsure he becomes of his sway in the ANC, the more populist he will sound.
Julius Malema will have returned. Older but not wiser.
Zuma starting to sound like Juju
'The more unsure he becomes of his sway in the ANC, the more populist he will sound'
AS DELEGATES walked out of the main hall at Gallagher Estate in Midrand on Friday night, a large crowd was standing at the exit singing and waving pro-Jacob Zuma placards.
"Mawushisa iskipa s'kaZuma, sizok'shaya ngevolovolo" (If you burn a Zuma T-shirt, we'll hit you with a revolver.)
The song, obviously referring to the practice of some ANC structures to burn images of leaders they do not like, was meant to intimidate those supporting Zuma's challengers.
This scene, and earlier scenes of open campaigning by supporters of apparent rival Kgalema Motlanthe, belied the assertions of the ANC leadership that the policy conference was free of tensions over the ANC leadership contestation.
In the words of the hierarchy, this was all a figment of journalists' imaginations. Delegates had come to the conference to debate policy, not leadership issues, they repeatedly said.
Of course nobody believed them.
The build-up to the policy conference was all about Mangaung, with Gallagher as a refuelling station.
Zuma crisscrossed the country attending every ANC and tripartite alliance gathering he could fit into his diary. He sold the second transition document as the answer to the ANC and the country's problems. His backers made it clear that they had to win the second transition battle on his behalf.
His language has become increasingly militant.
The adoption of the document was therefore going to be his victory and a clearing of the path to victory in Mangaung.
Zuma walked into conference a very confident leader, but with doubts lingering over what he had previously believed was an unassailable hold on the party.
Most of the ANC and tripartite structures that had recently held conferences had re-elected his backers, which gave him some comfort.
But recently Motlanthe and Tokyo Sexwale tentatively hinted that they may be interested in his position and many in the party were warming to the alternatives to the incumbent. Zuma realised he could not take re-election for granted. He had to work hard for it.
By the end of the conference a still confident but less assured Zuma was disowning the original second transition document, saying it was a national executive committee document and not tied to an individual - himself.
The use of a document as proxy for leadership battles mirrored the 2007 policy conference, when Thabo Mbeki's followers tied his re-election campaign to the so-called "two centres of power" debate.
The idea of the debate, so the conspiracy theorists averred, was to make Luthuli House the sole "centre of power".
If Mbeki were re-elected for a third ANC term and constitutional law prevented him from serving a third term at the Union Buildings, the president of the republic post-2009 would still dance to the tune of the party president.
Mbeki lost that debate and from then on he was on shaky ground, ultimately losing to Zuma in Polokwane.
This is not to say that Zuma is on the same downhill slope Mbeki was on in the second half of 2007.
The chinks in the armour are, however, now visible.
He is now being openly challenged and defied by not only the ANC Youth League but by a much broader critical mass.
The road to re-election to a second term is no longer as smooth as it seemed when the ANC's centenary year began.
Defeat in the second transition debate was no small loss for the president. It was a very clear indicator of his precarious hold on power.
That is why the president is mimicking Julius Malema and trying to occupy the militant space that the former youth league leader once occupied.
Listen to his rhetoric of late: "The economic power relations of the apartheid era have in the main remained intact. The ownership of the economy is still primarily in the hands of white males as it has always been," he thundered at the conference, telling the nation the obvious.
He spoke of how poverty and inequality gave him "sleepless nights" and hence the need for a "radical shift" in policy.
This new radicalism would require a stronger hand in the project of economic transformation.
When he closed the conference on Friday, Zuma was as militant as he was on Tuesday, warning of dire consequences if economic transformation was not speeded up.
"We will put democracy at grave risk," the president warned darkly.
"Those who feel the pain may one day say 'enough is enough'."
Zuma's strong language moved the youth league to boast that the positions they had been pushing over the past few years were winning favour in the ANC.
This is a pattern we are likely to see continue as Mangaung creeps closer.
Having elbowed the young man out of the way, Zuma will increasingly become Malema.
He will say irresponsible and emotive statements in order to touch the raw nerves that Malema was able to do.
And the more unsure he becomes of his sway in the ANC, the more populist he will sound.
Julius Malema will have returned. Older but not wiser.
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