The current SA political scene is like a loose scrum in rugby. You don't know where to expect the ball. The ANC still dominates the game, but its opposition is gaining ground all the time. The ANC is experiencing a credibility and a leadership crisis on many levels and internal strife is weakening the party.

The situation creates uncertainty and is leading to a vacuum where new parties and movements are moving in at a fast pace. Unfortunately, there is a lot of opportunism involved. A rearrangement of political forces is on the cards.

Though it is to be welcomed  in principle, it also brings about uncertainty and instability. Coalition politics that I have long foreseen, is already the order of the day on local level but there are still serious growing pains. On the positive side, President Cyril Ramaphosa – with his strategic and very patient approach, that frustrates so many – seems to be consolidating his position within the party despite the current political infighting.

He is beginning to look like a certain winner in the upcoming leadership battle. We are not yet ready for a country without the ANC, either as governing party or as a leading partner in a coalition government. The question is who the coalition partners will be should the ANC lose their majority. The DA shoots itself in the foot on an all too regular basis and is losing credible black leaders.

It started with the marriage between the DA and the NP. Parties with a largely exclusive membership base, such as the Freedom Front, have a very low ceiling and are certainly not in high demand as coalition partners. The EFF thankfully remains a 10% party, a sign of the maturity of the electorate, but the more radical wing of the ANC will welcome them back should the ANC lose its majority.

Herman Mashaba's ActionSA looks like a potential kingmaker in the future, but there is still much work to be done. The key question for the road ahead remains whether Ramaphosa will be re-elected as ANC president. If so, it is expected that he will take firm control in his second term and be much more decisive in achieving his goals.

If that is indeed the case, the ANC may retain its majority or at least still play a leading role in a coalition government. Without Ramaphosa as leader, the faction fights within the ANC will become more intense and political instability will increase.

There is still a long road ahead, but it is advisable to tighten your safety belts in the meantime. The political loose scrum is bound to continue for some time.

Dawie Jacobs, Sterrewag, Pretoria