OPINION | SA should carefully weigh its next diplomaticplay in the face of escalating tensions with the US

What shall we make of the expulsion of SA ambassador Ebrahim Rasool from the US? What are the implications for relations with SA? How is SA to respond to this case in a series of incidents signalling growing tensions with Washington?

On Friday, the US secretary of state[their foreign minister] Marco Rubio, shocked the diplomatic world when he announced Rasool had been “declared persona non-grata and no longer welcome in the US”.

Accusing Rasool of being anti-American and anti-Trump, and for engaging in race-baiting, Rubio broke protocols by announcing this on the X platform. Even the South African government was shocked because, normally, states démarche an ambassador they think did something wrong, which means summoning him to the foreign affairs department and reprimanding him.

The shocking decision has context. There have been strains in relations between SA and the US for some time. In the Nelson Mandela years, this was managed by high-level forum chaired by the vice-presidents, but that later fell away. So, difficulties of the recent period, such as during the 2021 US-led bombing of Libya that attracted the ire of SA, the duty to patch things up fell to ministers and ambassadors.

Relations reached another low after differences over the Russia and Ukraine war, with the US annoyed by Pretoria’s choice of non-alignment instead of aligning with the US support of Ukraine. Things reached a climax when the then US ambassador to SA openly accused SA of supplying military arms to Russia via Simon's Town harbour. This angered South Africans, but to manage this, Pretoria decided to reach out to Washington diplomatically.

Since US President Donald Trump ascended to power in January, we've seen his posts on X about “bad things” happening in SA, culminating in an executive order offering refugees protection for Afrikaner farmers escaping “harassment” in SA. It seemed the campaign by white right-wing forces led by the Solidarity movement and AfriForum, as well as the DA, from 2023 had reached the ears of the right-wing government.

It is worth noting that Trump's administration is strongly pro-Israel and, therefore, secretly abhors SA’s strong stance in support of Palestinians, including its decision to haul Israel before the International Court of Justice. This alone made Rasool's appointment as ambassador a cause for concern because of his strong position against Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and the US connivance in this. It seems they have not warmed up to him since taking over power.

So, when Rasool commented on the US foreign policy, linking it to the white supremacy agenda globally, Washington drew a red line and declared him persona non-grata. Rasool had raised a logical point of view in the political debate about the growing global right-wing tendencies. But it was risky for him as an ambassador to the US to link this negative phenomenon to Trump so openlyas this would be seen not just as an unfriendly but also hostile comment. He should have known the relations are under strain and that the new White House would waste no time taking advantage of his comment to escalate the tensions.

Now, SA has to think carefully about the type of personality and skill they send to the US as a replacement. It knows the White House and state department will scrutinise that nomination and reserve their right to reject it. So, a career diplomat – trained to handle complex conditions based on diplomatic practice rather than political attitude –  might be what we need. Rasool’s error was unlikely to be committed by a senior career diplomat because they are used to calm diplomatic demeanour and are not easily drawn into political debates. They tend to stick to communicating policy rather than strong opinions.

Pretoria will most likely continue with its charm offensive by sending special envoys bringing friendly messages from President Cyril Ramaphosa, consistent with his calm approach to this saga. But these envoys too must be chosen with great care. It will require intensive work to repair the trust deficit that has developed between the two countries. SA should, at least, maintain trade, investment and scientific co-operation at current levels.

Pretoria must out how to dissuade AfriForum and Solidarity from fanning the diplomatic fires even more.

And diplomats and political figures should watch what they say so as not to trigger further tensions. The criticism of the right-wing can be left to analysts and activists until relations recover.  We should also avoid taking the bait that gets laid out by figures associated with the MAGA movement, including Elon Musk, as these may be designed to give them reasons to escalate tensions.

• Prof Zondi is director of Institute for Pan African Thought and Conversation at University of Johannesburg.