THEO NEETHLING | Important variables that could define the future of SA

Voter turnout and post-elections results will influence trajectory of the country

Informal shacks of the high-density suburb of Masiphumelele extending into a wetland adjacent to Lake Michelle private estate in Cape Town.
Informal shacks of the high-density suburb of Masiphumelele extending into a wetland adjacent to Lake Michelle private estate in Cape Town.
Image: Nic Bothma

As SA approaches the national and provincial elections, it stands at the nexus of its democratic journey, marking three decades since the inception of its democratic dispensation. This pivotal moment in the nation's history encapsulates a confluence of factors that could redefine its trajectory.

The emergence of new political entities, the inclusion of independent candidates, a weaker incumbent party, pervasive uncertainty, and a clamour for change and economic revitalisation underscore the significance of the  May 29 elections.

Delving into the fabric of SA's political landscape unveils the following  variables of profound importance, each wielding relevance to the potential reshaping of the country's future:

Whereas the ANC obtained close to 70% of the votes in 2004, its support dwindled to just over 57% in 2019, and expectations are  that the ANC will obtain support of between 40% and 50% in the upcoming elections.

All indications are that a coalition will have to be formed at national level, but also in provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Gone are the days when the ANC had no serious political contender at the polls.

Where long-term one-party dominance occurs, arrogance, corruption, and confusion of party and state interests often prevail. This is certainly of relevance to SA, where many South Africans have increasingly experienced a staleness of incumbency after about 10 years into our democratic dispensation.

Few South Africans would not concur that the capacity of the government and public service is now severely lacking and needs urgent attention. Otherwise, the ANC is battling with internal strife and even President Cyril Ramaphosa has condemned the division within the governing party on several occasions over the past years. 

The post-1994 government increasingly started to face significant legitimacy problems at all levels of government,  especially at municipal level with protests and even violent incidents demonstrating dissatisfaction with service delivery. 

Voting behaviour also shows considerable apathy. Only about 66% of registered voters turned out to vote in the 2019 elections, which compares badly with the turnout of just more than 89% registered voters in 1999 and a more than 73% turnout in 2014.

Since 1994, SA has experienced several serious structural problems in its political economy, such as a lack of trained human capital and a poor educational system. This had a serious impact on economic growth and socioeconomic conditions. Two of the most important markers of socioeconomic conditions are, firstly, the wealth differential between rich and poor  and secondly, a high official unemployment figure of more than 30%. 

Before and since 1994, SA experienced colour, racial, and ethnic divisions in society. These divisions are deep and exclusionist and always a potential source of societal tension. SA remains a societal landscape that is racially conscious, and race and ethnic groupings tend to support specific political parties.

Few South Africans do not view safety and security as among the most challenging political issues. In the past two decades, crime levels have frequently ranked among the highest in the world, ranging from ordinary theft to sophisticated networks of cartels and syndicates.

The seriousness of this issue is reflected in the fact that there are more than 2.7-million registered private security officers in the country. This makes our security industry one of the largest in the world in a country where there are fewer than 150,000 police officers for the  population of 62-million.

Macro-economic indicators, specifically relating to monetary and fiscal policies, still reveal sound policies. However, SA has been unsuccessful in attracting major inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent decades.

The Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World report also indicated that SA appears considerably lower on the list of economic freedom to do business without government prescriptions than during the Mandela/Mbeki era.

There can be little doubt that poor performance of government and a governance crisis, especially at local government level, is of high concern  and will play a role in voting behaviour. This issue is largely rooted in the lack of appropriate skills and capacity, and unethical conduct in increasing incidents of corruption and maladministration in both government departments and state-owned companies.

Land reform in SA remains an emotive and politically fraught subject. Successful land reform can help forge a more cohesive society if a properly managed redistribution programme is implemented. However, since 1994 land reform remains a challenge, although some communities and individuals have indeed had their land restored.

For some parties, radical land reform is a  key issue in their manifestos, while others emphasise food security. Land reform is not always high on the political agenda, but usually rears its head as we move closer to elections.

Since 1994, SA has had no immediate regional enemies. The most significant regional issue is the unknown but large numbers of illegal immigrants settling in SA. There is a perception among some South Africans that immigrants are overwhelming the resources of the country and that jobs are taken from South Africans.

 

  • Neethling is professor in the department of political studies and governance at the University of Free State

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