MSINGATHI SIPUKA | Africa needs to establish itself as world breadbasket

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s main message during the recent mission to Ukraine and Russia was to end the war because of its impact on global food security. He cited the effect of the war on the supply chains for grain and the availability of this important commodity to global markets, with Africa being his main focus.

Before this war, many people were probably unaware of the global importance of Ukraine in terms of food markets. Considering the impact of the supply-side shock that the global economy has endured because of the war, it is worth taking some time to understand the Ukrainian agricultural sector.

Often considered as the breadbasket of continental Europe, World Economic Forum data show that in 2021, Ukrainian agricultural exports amounted to $27bn (about R503bn). This accounted for more than 40% of total national exports. Ukraine’s agricultural output is so important that the World Food Programme’s global operations receive over 40% of its supply from the country.

Ukraine’s comparative advantage in agriculture comes from being a low-cost producer. This means farms in the country have lower costs and higher returns per hectare than their peers. This makes Ukraine’s products cheap in global terms.

The war has not only created a glut in global supply but also removed relatively cheaper Ukrainian products from the market. The problem with the current situation is that it is hard to fill the gap. Even when new supply comes on stream, it distorts global prices because Ukraine’s produce is much cheaper, as stated above. These factors have contributed to the runaway inflation that the global economy faces.

Considering the economic and humanitarian impact of the war, the Ramaphosa-led delegation’s assertion that this war is not some far away event happening in another continent but an event of global significance that has material impact on the lives of Africans is correct. It, thus, seems quite logical as to why the African position advanced during the mission was to call for the opening up of the movement of grains across the Black Sea for grains from both countries to reach world markets.

As logical as the position seems, based on immediate interests, it could be that through it Africa is losing a great opportunity to rethink how it feeds itself. Currently, the continent is a net food importer with significant dependence on countries like Russia, Ukraine, China, Thailand and others. As things stand the continental bill for food imports stands at roughly $50bn with estimates suggesting that this could rise to as much as $110bn if the continent does not fundamentally transform its agricultural output, especially considering the high rates of urbanisation and population growth.

This poses a particular challenge for the continent, considering its potential in agriculture and its favourable endowment of arable land. The Food and Agricultural Organisation aptly captures this challenge arguing that Africa position as a net importer of food and of agricultural products, despite its vast agricultural potential, is puzzling.

The current food crisis on the continent brought about by the Ukraine/Russia conflict has brought the question of Africa’s food sovereignty to the fore. To a large extent, especially with the potential the continent holds, if Africa was producing its own food and trading within for the various products, we would not be as exposed as we are now. In fact, Africa could potentially be establishing itself as the breadbasket of the world by filling the supply side shortages caused by the war.

After all the world is facing yet another disruption, but for Africa the answer may lie in utilising the crisis to rethink its position in the global structure of production in the agricultural sector. Africa needs to use this crisis wisely.

• Dr Msingathi Sipuka is chief of staff at the African Union Development Agency-Nepad. He writes in his personal capacity.