ABUJA - Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan is coming under pressure to prosecute top officials implicated in a $6.8-billion (about R55-billion) fuel subsidy fraud, but many of the suspects are allies he is unlikely to go after if he wants to keep his power base intact.
It has been three weeks since parliament produced a report detailing massive corruption in a state subsidised petrol import scheme and Jonathan has yet to indicate how he intends to respond.
Inaction on one of the biggest corruption scandals in Nigerian history will hurt Jonathan's reformist credentials and further alienate his government from a disillusioned population.
It could also prompt major public protests.
But some of Jonathan's closest allies manage the oil industry, which is based in his home region, and the tentacles of the subsidy fraud spread throughout the political elite, making it near impossible to untangle.
"In the past, pressure for change has usually prompted the casting aside of a scapegoat," said Antony Goldman, Nigeria analyst and head of Africa-focused PM Consulting.
Too many people in the ruling elite do not want an end to corruption, they just want their turn. From an external perspective, failure to act may indeed look like weakness; the domestic environment is more complex.
Civil society groups have threatened protests if those they deem responsible for the mess, including Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke, and heads of the state oil firm, aren't sacked.
In January, thousands brought the nation to a standstill in protests against an attempted removal of the subsidy.
Jonathan already has many opponents and is struggling to contain an Islamist insurgency in the north. In a country where patronage and largesse still determine political success, prosecuting power brokers is risk he is unlikely to take.
The report said Nigeria paid 900% more in fuel subsidies last year than it budgeted for, handing out billions of dollars to briefcase companies that had no capacity to import fuel or to firms that sold the petrol to neighbouring countries.
Criticism focused on fuel importers and government agencies but the report's evidence pointed to several ministries and the central bank.
If Jonathan implements its recommendations he will undermine a large section of the team he chose to run the country.
"I don't think we're going to see high level officials in jail ... that would imply his regime had imploded," said Patrick Smith, editor of Africa Confidential.
"The government didn't want this to come out. It isn't hard to track back some of this to the top people in government."
Jonathan this week squashed speculation about a cabinet reshuffle, saying he had confidence in existing ministers, to the dismay of activists who wanted tough action. He has said subsidy fraudsters will be prosecuted, but called for patience.
A defining moment for Jonathan government
ABUJA - Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan is coming under pressure to prosecute top officials implicated in a $6.8-billion (about R55-billion) fuel subsidy fraud, but many of the suspects are allies he is unlikely to go after if he wants to keep his power base intact.
It has been three weeks since parliament produced a report detailing massive corruption in a state subsidised petrol import scheme and Jonathan has yet to indicate how he intends to respond.
Inaction on one of the biggest corruption scandals in Nigerian history will hurt Jonathan's reformist credentials and further alienate his government from a disillusioned population.
It could also prompt major public protests.
But some of Jonathan's closest allies manage the oil industry, which is based in his home region, and the tentacles of the subsidy fraud spread throughout the political elite, making it near impossible to untangle.
"In the past, pressure for change has usually prompted the casting aside of a scapegoat," said Antony Goldman, Nigeria analyst and head of Africa-focused PM Consulting.
Too many people in the ruling elite do not want an end to corruption, they just want their turn. From an external perspective, failure to act may indeed look like weakness; the domestic environment is more complex.
Civil society groups have threatened protests if those they deem responsible for the mess, including Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke, and heads of the state oil firm, aren't sacked.
In January, thousands brought the nation to a standstill in protests against an attempted removal of the subsidy.
Jonathan already has many opponents and is struggling to contain an Islamist insurgency in the north. In a country where patronage and largesse still determine political success, prosecuting power brokers is risk he is unlikely to take.
The report said Nigeria paid 900% more in fuel subsidies last year than it budgeted for, handing out billions of dollars to briefcase companies that had no capacity to import fuel or to firms that sold the petrol to neighbouring countries.
Criticism focused on fuel importers and government agencies but the report's evidence pointed to several ministries and the central bank.
If Jonathan implements its recommendations he will undermine a large section of the team he chose to run the country.
"I don't think we're going to see high level officials in jail ... that would imply his regime had imploded," said Patrick Smith, editor of Africa Confidential.
"The government didn't want this to come out. It isn't hard to track back some of this to the top people in government."
Jonathan this week squashed speculation about a cabinet reshuffle, saying he had confidence in existing ministers, to the dismay of activists who wanted tough action. He has said subsidy fraudsters will be prosecuted, but called for patience.
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