OPINION | National dialogue must tackle uncomfortable truths if it has any chance of real success

The launch of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s national dialogue arrives at a critical juncture for SA. Promoted as an inclusive, society-wide initiative designed to reflect, reset, and reimagine the nation’s future, it carries with it both hope and peril.

Coming in the wake of the ANC’s historic loss of its parliamentary majority in the May 2024 general election – the party’s first such setback in three decades – and the subsequent transition into a government of national unity, the dialogue aims to foster national consensus amid political upheaval.

Yet, the true test lies not in the rhetoric but in the substance. If managed adeptly, the process could serve as a catalyst for healing our fractured politics and laying the groundwork for economic revival. Conversely, mishandling risks relegating it to the status of yet another talkfest, an exercise in window-dressing while SA’s multiple crises deepen.

A comparative glance northward to Senegal offers a sobering perspective. There, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s national dialogue on political reform seeks to consolidate democracy after periods of tension. The Senegalese example underscores that such initiatives can be meaningful if they confront core issues head-on.

SA’s predicament is well documented. The ANC’s plummeting support down to roughly 40% of the vote reflects a broader rejection of its record of mismanagement and broken promises, which have left the economy stagnant and public services in disrepair.

The country’s troubles are rooted in a history of patronage, corruption, and policy paralysis. Yet, past dialogues and summits have often resulted in lofty declarations rather than tangible change.

What distinguishes this moment is the apparent willingness to confront uncomfortable truths: that state capture persists, debt levels threaten fiscal stability, and reform is urgent if the nation is to avoid descending into economic and social chaos.

Nevertheless, the composition of the “eminent persons” leading the dialogue raises questions. While diverse, featuring athletes, religious leaders, civil society figures, writers, and storytellers, it notably omits substantial representation from key economic stakeholders and does little to reflect SA’s demographic diversity.

The inclusion of figures like former president Thabo Mbeki and prominent business leaders, such as those behind last year’s investment pledge and the 115 CEOs initiative, could lend credibility and foster a genuine public-private partnership to confront systemic risks, corruption, and infrastructural decay.

The fiscal horizon, however, looms largest. Public debt now exceeds 77% of GDP, with negligible growth, just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting structural vulnerabilities: an expansive public sector wage bill, inefficient state-owned enterprises, and sluggish tax revenues.

The dialogue should not be mistaken for a substitute for hard fiscal decisions, but it can serve as a platform for consensus building. Lessons from Jamaica’s 2013 national debt exchange demonstrate that involving government, business, and labour in frank negotiations can yield tangible reform agreements.

SA must confront the hard questions: Are borrowed funds being used productively? Is debt servicing fostering growth or merely sustaining past excesses?

Beyond macroeconomics, the dialogue must grapple with systemic economic constraints. Power outages, crumbling rail infrastructure, and water shortages are not mere technical hiccups but symptoms of governance failure.

In an era of shifting supply chains and intensifying global competition, reliance on commodity exports alone is insufficient. Addressing energy reliability, port modernisation, and aligning education with labour market needs must be priorities.

Failure to act carries dire consequences. A debt crisis could necessitate austerity measures akin to those witnessed in Argentina or Egypt, with severe social repercussions. Political instability might deter the foreign investment critical for recovery. With youth unemployment at a staggering 62%, social unrest becomes an imminent threat.

The dialogue’s success hinges on producing concrete commitments: clear timelines for reducing public sector wages, targets for energy reform, and local government restructuring. Vague promises will not suffice.

The GNU must focus on the investment in infrastructure and put fiscal trajectory on a sustainable path by using state-owned enterprises to generate revenue. And this can be done through the government investing in sectors of the economy that have the highest return on the investment.

This can generate stronger potential economic growth, which in turn leads to revenue growth, such as an increase in the tax base. But it demands leaders willing to confront uncomfortable truths and accept that incremental change may no longer suffice.

The true measure of the national dialogue will be whether it catalyses decisive action or merely prolongs the nation’s paralysis.

SA’s future hinges on whether the opportunity is seized or squandered. The coming months will reveal whether the country’s political class recognises the gravity of the moment – or continues to drift in denial. The choice is theirs, and history’s judgment will be swift.

* Mabasa is the executive manager in the office of the deputy minister for mineral resources and energy, and co-chairperson of the Brics Youth Council