SA’s political and economic landscape shifted significantly after the 2024 national elections. The ruling ANC’s dramatic loss of support resulted in a government of national unity (GNU) – a pivotal moment in the country’s political history.
It is still too early to assess the GNU’s success. However, it signifies an effort by political parties to agree on the values and principles that should guide behaviour and decision-making in the national government.
The GNU presents new possibilities for SA. In President Cyril Ramaphosa's words: to work together as political parties for the good of the country and to deliver a government that will be united in action and purpose.
However, a key question remains: will it hold? The question arises because the unity government demands that its constituent parties co-operate, even though their respective constituencies may want different things.
Certain issues will put pressure on the coalition. Consequently, the GNU raises uncertainties about the country’s political stability and direction. Particularly given the coalition’s heavy reliance on Ramaphosa’s facilitating leadership.
Here are key factors that will shape the country’s short and medium-term trajectory and test the strength of its unity government.
It was necessary to form a unity government to stabilise governance. But its durability is uncertain. The coalition’s middle ground may be strained as conflicting priorities arise among its members. Key are ideological differences over National Health Insurance and conflicting foreign policy issues.
At the same time, legitimacy and confidence in governance need to be restored. Voter turnout has declined.
If this democratic experiment fails, it could dent the confidence of voters and businesses. Forming the unity government improved business confidence to “cautious optimism”.
Divisions in the ANC continue to threaten its unity. These were highlighted at the party’s 2022 elective conference. Ramaphosa narrowly secured re-election as ANC president, exposing serious rifts within the party. These internal divisions cast uncertainty over Ramaphosa’s effective leadership of his party.
The ANC’s national elective conference in 2027 will set the party’s direction and mark the end of Ramaphosa’s leadership.
Public confidence in government institutions has eroded since 1994, particularly at the municipal level. Protests at the poor – or lack of – delivery of basic services, including water and sanitation, are pervasive.
Declining trust in parliament and other governmental bodies – starting during former president Jacob Zuma’s term – is a major concern.
It’s uncertain whether the unity government can boost public confidence and trust.
Stark wealth disparities and unemployment exceeding 30% add to societal tensions. Youth unemployment is even higher.
The risk of large-scale political unrest has decreased since democracy in 1994. But frustration among the poor, unemployed and marginalised still carries the risk of sporadic riots and instability.
The violent protests in July 2021 are a reminder. The underlying factors for more than 300 fatalities, looting and destruction stemmed from the state’s failure to address poverty.
The unity government needs to power economic growth, create jobs and reduce poverty.
Safety and security rank among SA’s most pressing issues. Crime rates remain high, including organised crime and violence.
Trust in police is low, fuelling growth in the private security sector.
The “oldest and simplest justification” for government is to protect citizens from crime and violence. The unity government must restore public trust in the police and enhance security.
Despite the numerous challenges, the economy attracted nearly R100bn in foreign direct investment inflows in 2023, equivalent to 1.4% of GDP.
Against expectations, inflows have exceeded outflows every year since the 2008/9 global financial crisis.
Addressing crime must thus be among the top priorities of the GNU.
Poor governance and a crisis of competence plague public administration, particularly at the local level. Service delivery failures stem from inadequate skills and corruption and maladministration.
State-owned enterprises also pose governance challenges. Eskom seems to be turning around. However, the Post Office, Transnet and others exemplify systemic inefficiencies and corruption.
Illegal migration has become a major cause for concern since the economic crisis in Zimbabwe began in the 1990s. Perceptions are growing that migrants are overwhelming the resources of the country, taking jobs from South Africans and engaging in crime.
The presence of illegal miners, many from impoverished neighbouring nations, heightens social tensions. – The Conversation
- Neethling is a professor of political science at the University of the Free State
OPINION | Key factors that will shape SA's trajectory, test the GNU
Image: Phando Jikelo, Parliament RSA
SA’s political and economic landscape shifted significantly after the 2024 national elections. The ruling ANC’s dramatic loss of support resulted in a government of national unity (GNU) – a pivotal moment in the country’s political history.
It is still too early to assess the GNU’s success. However, it signifies an effort by political parties to agree on the values and principles that should guide behaviour and decision-making in the national government.
The GNU presents new possibilities for SA. In President Cyril Ramaphosa's words: to work together as political parties for the good of the country and to deliver a government that will be united in action and purpose.
However, a key question remains: will it hold? The question arises because the unity government demands that its constituent parties co-operate, even though their respective constituencies may want different things.
Certain issues will put pressure on the coalition. Consequently, the GNU raises uncertainties about the country’s political stability and direction. Particularly given the coalition’s heavy reliance on Ramaphosa’s facilitating leadership.
Here are key factors that will shape the country’s short and medium-term trajectory and test the strength of its unity government.
It was necessary to form a unity government to stabilise governance. But its durability is uncertain. The coalition’s middle ground may be strained as conflicting priorities arise among its members. Key are ideological differences over National Health Insurance and conflicting foreign policy issues.
At the same time, legitimacy and confidence in governance need to be restored. Voter turnout has declined.
If this democratic experiment fails, it could dent the confidence of voters and businesses. Forming the unity government improved business confidence to “cautious optimism”.
Divisions in the ANC continue to threaten its unity. These were highlighted at the party’s 2022 elective conference. Ramaphosa narrowly secured re-election as ANC president, exposing serious rifts within the party. These internal divisions cast uncertainty over Ramaphosa’s effective leadership of his party.
The ANC’s national elective conference in 2027 will set the party’s direction and mark the end of Ramaphosa’s leadership.
Public confidence in government institutions has eroded since 1994, particularly at the municipal level. Protests at the poor – or lack of – delivery of basic services, including water and sanitation, are pervasive.
Declining trust in parliament and other governmental bodies – starting during former president Jacob Zuma’s term – is a major concern.
It’s uncertain whether the unity government can boost public confidence and trust.
Stark wealth disparities and unemployment exceeding 30% add to societal tensions. Youth unemployment is even higher.
The risk of large-scale political unrest has decreased since democracy in 1994. But frustration among the poor, unemployed and marginalised still carries the risk of sporadic riots and instability.
The violent protests in July 2021 are a reminder. The underlying factors for more than 300 fatalities, looting and destruction stemmed from the state’s failure to address poverty.
The unity government needs to power economic growth, create jobs and reduce poverty.
Safety and security rank among SA’s most pressing issues. Crime rates remain high, including organised crime and violence.
Trust in police is low, fuelling growth in the private security sector.
The “oldest and simplest justification” for government is to protect citizens from crime and violence. The unity government must restore public trust in the police and enhance security.
Despite the numerous challenges, the economy attracted nearly R100bn in foreign direct investment inflows in 2023, equivalent to 1.4% of GDP.
Against expectations, inflows have exceeded outflows every year since the 2008/9 global financial crisis.
Addressing crime must thus be among the top priorities of the GNU.
Poor governance and a crisis of competence plague public administration, particularly at the local level. Service delivery failures stem from inadequate skills and corruption and maladministration.
State-owned enterprises also pose governance challenges. Eskom seems to be turning around. However, the Post Office, Transnet and others exemplify systemic inefficiencies and corruption.
Illegal migration has become a major cause for concern since the economic crisis in Zimbabwe began in the 1990s. Perceptions are growing that migrants are overwhelming the resources of the country, taking jobs from South Africans and engaging in crime.
The presence of illegal miners, many from impoverished neighbouring nations, heightens social tensions. – The Conversation
Taxpayers to foot R239m bill for GNU's additional ministers and deputies
OPINION | Positive signs of steady economic growth under GNU
OPINION | SA aims to leave no one behind as it seeks to build a better world
Would you like to comment on this article?
Register (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Trending
Latest Videos