These are the key findings of a Bureau for Economic Research (BER) research paper, "Ten Years After the Lehman collapse: SA’s Post-crisis Performance in Perspective", by BER economist Harri Kemp.
Kemp sets out to determine what the "lost years" of SA’s economic stagnation between 2010 and 2017 cost the country in terms of the growth, taxes and jobs forgone. According to his estimates:
• If domestic activity had reverted to its pre-crisis trend of broadly matching global growth, real GDP would have been 15.4% (R481bn) higher by the end of 2017.
• If it had matched that of other commodity-exporting economies, SA’s real GDP would have been 10.5%-14.7% (between R329bn and R458bn) higher in 2017.
This article was first published by Financial Mail (Paywall)