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Bumpy road to peace in Ivory Coast

ABIDJAN - Ivory Coast can look forward to peace after a bloody four-month power struggle was resolved with the arrest of former president Laurent Gbagbo, who had refused to step down after losing an election.

The road to stability and economic recovery in the world's top cocoa grower will be long and littered with potential obstacles.

Yet new President Alassane Ouattara can count on a large slice of international goodwill and the undoubted benefit of a country rich with natural resources, which include oil, coffee, gold, cotton, palm oil and rubber.

Though he is now sole president and no longer holed up in a UN-protected hotel, one of Ouattara's first priorities will be to convince Ivorians that he can restore law and order after weeks of violence and looting.

Fears of divisions within the anti-Gbagbo coalition proved to be well-founded as rows between factions swiftly broke out.

But the killing of Ibrahim Coulibaly, who had led the initial attacks on Gbagbo's forces in Abidjan, might help stem the damage.

Security is also a serious concern up-country, especially the west, where gunmen, including some from neighbouring Liberia, continue to operate amid an atmosphere of deep-rooted ethnic tensions.

Ouattara needs to watch whether any of Coulibaly's supporters, who have a fierce rivalry with Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, will try and hold out, leaving pockets of instability in Abidjan, and how successful Ouattara is at disarming the pro-Gbagbo militia and remaining mercenaries.

Ouattara must also deliver on military reform, the lack of which during the lead-up to elections contributed to the crisis. Success will hinge on his ability to break up fiefdoms, and incorporate former rebels and pro-Gbagbo forces into disciplined military unit.

Failure risks reigniting the conflict.

After running a parallel administration with no real power, Ouattara is due to be sworn in as president on May 21.

He is likely to have little or no grace period and will need to deliver concrete results in getting the country back on its feet in order to win over the 46percent of the population that voted for Gbagbo. Delays or signs of a lack of leadership risk quickly stoking frustrations. Ouattara has promised some form of government of national unity so all eyes will be on the composition of the team he names after his swearing in.

Allies from the November 28 run-off, especially Henri Konan Bedie's PDCI, who helped deliver the Baoule vote, will expect rewards. But Ouattara has said he will also offer posts to Gbagbo loyalists who recognise him as president.

The IMF is studying ways to help, for example through soft loans from a Rapid Credit Facility designed for poorer countries hit by natural disaster or war. - Reuters