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Sacci BCI shows slight upward trend

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) business confidence index showed a slight month-on-month improvement in December, increasing by 1.1 index points, according to statistics released on Thursday.

The BCI for December stood at 91.9, up from the 90.8 figure for November.

"Although this is the highest reading for the BCI in the second half of 2013, it remained 1.1 index points below the December 2012 level," Sacci said in a statement.

The average BCI for the second half of 2013 stood at 91.1, slightly lower than the 91.7 for the first half of 2013.

Compared to previous years, the annual performance for the BCI was the worst since 1999 when it averaged 87.6 index points.

"It is therefore currently important to nurture all aspects of the business climate that would promote a spirit of optimism in the business fraternity."

Sacci said the improvement in business confidence in December came after a year fraught with, among others, labour disputes, which led to disruptions in businesses.

"The slight improvement that surfaced in the last half of 2013 in a still fragile economic situation holds risks for South Africa's credit and sovereign ratings.

"It is therefore important to build on the improved December 2013 BCI despite ongoing economic concerns and the upcoming election campaign," Sacci said.

While manufacturing and exports grew on a year-on-year basis, other BCI sub-indices contributed to a lesser extent.

These include municipal services and lower real financing cost.

Five of the sub-indices had a negative impact on business confidence.

There were varied views on the outlook for 2013.

"Although business confidence was slightly up in December 2013 after a disheartening performance in November 2013, the economic outlook for 2014 remains varied from cautiously optimistic to concerns about a risk-prone environment."

Sacci listed various matters which could have an impact on business confidence.

These included questions around the implementation of the National Development Plan, and the capacity of the public sector to perform.

On the global front, the world economy was expected to perform better this year, growing by about 3.6 percent.

But problems in China's banking finance could pose risks -- specifically where commodity prices were concerned.

"This could impact negatively on commodity exporting countries like South Africa."

In addition, Sacci said the complexities of the South African economy should also be factored in.

"These mainly are the deficit on the current account of the BoP [Balance of Payments]; serious fiscal limitations on all levels of government; the possibility of rising interest rates towards year-end; rand weakness and inflationary consequences; service delivery weaknesses; high levels of household debt; and corruption in the public and private sector."

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