“South Africa, politically, is actually quite unstable,” he said, speaking after delivering an address at Stellenbosch University.

Asked if he thought the ANC would still be in power 20 to 30 years from now, Mbeki, the younger brother of former president Thabo Mbeki, responded: “No, I don’t think so”. 

Asked which party he thought would replace the ANC, he said: “I think there are new political parties… [there are] awakenings happening in the country that I think will create [this alternative]”.

Earlier, he told University of Stellenbosch students there was potential for the “emergence of a new political party, driven by organised labour and business”.

This, Mbeki said, would be a good thing for South Africa, but something the ruling party saw as a “major, major threat”.

The primary challenge facing the country was that half to three-quarters of the population were living in poverty.

Asked what he thought the likelihood was of South Africa experiencing the equivalent of an Arab Spring — the revolutionary wave of protests and uprisings that swept across parts of the Arab world over a year ago — he replied: “Very high”. 

The North African states where the revolts had taken place were middle-income countries like South Africa, he said. “The North African countries and South Africa are the only middle-income countries in Africa. It’s them that are faced with this problem.

"You have a relatively well-educated population that have high expectations, but the economic system is not delivering. Those are the countries that are susceptible to what happened in [that region]."

On South Africa’s economic prospects for the next two to three decades, he said there were two ways the country could go.

“If we carry on along the path we are following, which is to divert more and more of our gross domestic product to private and state consumption, then the [local] economy is going to shrink and continue shrinking.

“If, on the other hand, we change the policies, and move more like the Asians are doing towards investment… it’ll make a huge difference.” 

But he warned that South Africa could not have it both ways.

“You can't have these hugely highly paid politicians and civil servants, who are consuming imports like 4x4s and those kinds of things, and, at the same time, develop investment for the economy.

“Politically, if you’re having a stagnant economy, you have the instability that we’re having in South Africa today.” 

South Africa was politically unstable, but there was no organised opposition among the poor, who made up the bulk of the ANC’s support base.

“It's just that the poor people are operating on their own. But, sooner or later, they are going to be joined by others — like, for example, the ANC Youth League.

“You can see the ANCYL are now starting to join the poor. Then it becomes a new political equation.” 

Delivering his address earlier – titled “The Social Structure of South Africa and its Impact on Economic Performance” — Mbeki criticised the party that he once, in the 1990s, served as a media consultant.

“If you look at the political elite in South Africa today, their main objective… is to maximise their own consumption, and the consumption of those who keep them in power.

“And the people who keep this group in power… are the poor.

"Seventy percent of the voters for the ANC do not work.” 

He suggested the ANC had secured its electoral power base by massively increasing social grants, with the number of recipients rising from about two million in 1996 to 15.5 million today.

“The payback [for the ANC] for this is [the poor] voting for whoever gives them money.” 

Mbeki, who holds an MA in Sociology, said many of his friends within the Congress of SA Trade Unions believed that the federation had put the ANC in power.

“It is not them that put the ANC in power; it's the poor, who are not working, who put the ANC in power.” 

Mbeki also warned about what he called capital flight out of South Africa.

“Since 1994, capital flight has been getting higher and higher and higher in South Africa.” 

In 2007 alone, South Africa had lost – according to a Wits University study — an estimated US20 billion in illegal capital exports. “Since 1994, there has been a huge amount of capital flight; up to 20% of South Africa’s gross domestic product flies out of the country annually.” 

Mbeki said the ANC had demonstrated a “lack of interest” in attracting investment.

“However, organised labour realises the consequence [of this]. Already we are beginning to see this alliance playing itself up.

“The National Union of Metalworkers of SA has formed a partnership with what is called the manufacturing circle, which are the manufacturing industrialists.

“They have formed a partnership to stop the de-industrialisation of the country. So this process is already working itself out.” 

Mbeki said South Africa’s “political elite” felt threatened by business capitalists, civil society and organised labour.

“And there is a reform that is being put in place by the people who control the state, which is to tackle the issue of the independence of all these groups.” 

This was being done by “trying to undermine the independence of the media and by trying to control the judiciary.

“The independence of the judiciary is being threatened because this group feels very, very threatened by what is emerging in the country.

“The media is under threat. The state has long [ago] taken control of the SABC, which is supposed to be an independent public broadcaster, but which is actually run as a branch of the ANC,” Mbeki said.

Comments

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Fri May 24 20:43:48 SAST 2013 ::

May 11, 2012

Papage

In whose side are you Mr Mbeki, why don't you help the party?
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May 11, 2012

MissBhakajuju

wait 4 the Misilles from Luthuli House, from the d.oom commanders Gwede, Shawara, Baleka........ the ones that were called to order by the Afrikaaners, this week.


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May 11, 2012

1tsotsi

I agree, with the rate that its going under jacob zuma it will. Now lets here gwede attack Mbeki calling him a counter-revolutionary, thats what he knows best.
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May 11, 2012

1tsotsi

MissBhakajuju
wait 4 the Misilles from Luthuli House, from the d.oom commanders Gwede, Shawara, Baleka........ the ones that were called to order by the Afrikaaners, this week.
===========
You forgot to mention the drunken master Mthembu, im sure that now he still sipping his smirnoff then he will unleash!!!
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May 11, 2012

tsayaya

there goes another one sprinkling the vampire (anc) with holy water, now watch it gets mad Baberbek Mthembu, Dogbreath Mantashe, Doubleheadedmonster Majaevane, etc
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May 11, 2012

mychief

As much as I respect you Mr Mbeki, but I think your hatred for the current ANC leadership clouds your judgement. You have in the past predicted things which never really happened. e.g. predicting the outcome of Polokwane Conference. You may still be bitter regarding what happened to comrade Thabo, even Thabo has moved on, not being forever held by the Polokwane changes. I don't think it is useful to use such platforms to attack the ANC. If you have issues with the ANC, I suggest you approach Luthuli House and raise your concerns. I don't think they will refuse to listen to your concerns. But this PR exercise you are doing is not helping anybody.
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May 11, 2012

tsayaya

Pigface Nzimande, Dentalformula Motshekga, Hornygoat Maharaj
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May 11, 2012

ProgressiveAfricanDemocrat

Moeletsi Mbeki is more ANC than Gwede Mantashe and Mantashe is a Johnny-come-lately to the ANC whereas Moeletsi was born in the ANC, wore ANC diapers long before Mantashe could spell the A in the ANC. However, I think Moeletsi is only looking at one scenario, there other possible scenarios which may well leave the ANC in power. If the ANC gets rid of Zuma in Mangaung, it would have added more than 10 years to its life. If the man from Nkandla comes in, the Day of Reckoning will be much earlier than the 2 or 3 decades or so that Moeletsi is musing about.
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May 11, 2012

The-Rothschilds

Told you guys that the majority of voters that vote the ANC vote ANC because of social grants. It has nothing to do with Helen Zille calling education pupils refugees.

Its all about who fits the bill at the end of the month, the ANC voter could not care less what is said by what politician. If anything, rhetoric by politicians mostly effect the middle and upper classes, which makes sense because often rhetoric from government turns into donations from the private sector.
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May 11, 2012

MissBhakajuju

@1tsotsi

kwaaaaaaakwaaaaakwaaaakwaaaaakwaaaaaaa...... LOL
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