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ANC succession battle: Who has the biggest support?

BIG SIX: ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa, secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, President Jacob Zuma, treasurer Zweli Mkhize, chairman Baleka Mbete and deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte take a break from deliberations at a special NEC meeting in Irene yesterday. Pic: Daylin Paul. © The Times.
BIG SIX: ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa, secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, President Jacob Zuma, treasurer Zweli Mkhize, chairman Baleka Mbete and deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte take a break from deliberations at a special NEC meeting in Irene yesterday. Pic: Daylin Paul. © The Times.

African National Congress (ANC) succession battle is officially in full swing and different factions in the party have made public their preferred candidates.

Jacob Zuma's tenure as the ANC president comes to an end in December and a new leader will have to be elected at the party's 54th national conference. It's not clear who that leader will be.

There are currently two front-runners, the Africa Union Commission  chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa.

The two have received staggering support from various factions of the ruling party.

Cyril Ramaphosa

Ramaphosa is said to be enjoying backing from four provinces, mainly the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, Limpopo and Northern Cape.

Cyril Ramaphosa during the public announcement of the National Disciplinary Committee of Appel ( NDC) hearings of Julius Malema , Ronald Lamola, Pule Mabe , Sindiso Magaqa, Kenetswe Mosenogi and Floyd Shivambu at Chief Albert Luthuli House in Johannesburg. Pic. Antonio Muchave. 04/02/2012. © Sowetan.  

The support Ramaphosa enjoys is massive but the shadow of the Marikana Massacre that still hangs over his head is negatively impacting his candidacy.

#FeesMustFall leader Mcebo Dlamini said the youth want Ramaphosa to take over the reigns but maintains he needs to apologise first. Dlamini said that apologising is not admission of guilt but that it happened on his watch. Ramaphosa was a non-executive member of Lonmin when the 'massacre' took place.

Ramaphosa has however won hearts of many in the ANC by calling for a lifestyle audit of the leaders

ANC's biggest alliance partner the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) have also thrown their weight behind Ramaphosa, a move the party's Secretary General Gwede Mantashe has described as "spoiling the water" and that this move has made it difficult to suppress the succession debate.

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

President Jacob Zuma's ex-wife and the outgoing AU Commission chairperson is one of the two people likely to take the ANC forward post-National Conference in December.

August3, 2016. Nkosazana Dlamini ZUma at Michael Gwala community Hall , a poling station in Ward4 , Inchanga, outside PMB. The area is tense between SACP and ANC because of slain SACP activist Phillip Dlamini, and her security prevented her from entering another poling station in Ward 4 where the atmosphere was too tense 

She enjoys unshaken backing from the Women's League. The league made their choice clear on the eve of the ANC's 105 birthday celebrations which were held at the Orlando Stadium on Sunday. The league described Dlamini-Zuma's leadership as “an embodiment of leadership as espoused by ‘Through the Eye of the Needle'".

She is also backed by the so-called Premier's League which consists of three premiers namely the North West Premier Supra Mahumapelo, Free State premier Ace Magashule and the Mpumalanga premier David Mabuza.

Dlamini-Zuma is also supported by the party's Youth League.

The Women's League and the Youth League both want a woman as the party's next president.

Kgalema Motlanthe

Motlanthe has been in the top seat before as an interim president between Thabo Mbeki being fired and Jacob Zuma taking over.

Former President Kgalema Motlanthe cast his vote at the Killarney Country Club in Houghton‚ Johannesburg. Picture Credit: Alon Skuy 

Although he has not come forward and put his name in the hat for the succession battle, it is reported that he is also in the running.

Mail & Guardian is reporting that Motlanthe enjoys support from the veterans as they believe he has qualities of a leader who can reunite the party.

Jacob Zuma

It should also be mentioned that there are reports claiming Zuma is eyeing a third term as the ANC president.

South African President Jacob Zuma greets supporters at a rally to commemorate the 105th birthday of his ruling African National Congress (ANC), in Soweto, South Africa, January 8, 2017. REUTERS/James Oatway 

Although South Africa's Constitution is crystal clear on the two term limit for a president, the ANC constitution on the hand is said not be quite clear on the term limits. The party's constitution only states that the "National Conference shall be convened at least once every five years".

EFF leader Julius Malema has also issued a warning citing that a third term for Zuma is loading. He did not specify on third term as the ANC president or president of the country.

Malema has also called on people to take advantage of the division in the ANC ahead of its National Conference.

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