Is a terrorist attack possible in South Africa?

Henning Snyman‚ a security industry operations manager‚ thinks that the threat of a terror attack in South Africa is low‚ but not impossible.

“Everywhere in the world is under threat‚ there is not one country that is immune to the threat of radical movements or radicalised individuals‚” said Snyman‚ who is the Coordinating Security Operations Manager for Middle East‚ North East and Southern Africa for International SOS and Control Risk‚ which provides security advice and assistance to international organisations.

Speaking at the Securex conference in Midrand this week‚ Snyman stressed there was a distinction between presence versus capabilities when it came to radical organisations.

He said there were reasons why extremist groups could be attracted to South Africa. One of those reasons would be sympathisers and the biggest threat South Africa faced was from a lone wolf attack which Snyman explains as: “a person who is acting on his own‚ he might not be instructed by the terror group‚ but he might be inspired…messages that are conveyed over the internet”.

Snyman said he would be very surprised if there were no sympathisers of terrorist organisations in South Africa. With modern technology‚ it has become very easy to find sympathisers amongst people were alienated or already on the fringes of society.

But at the same time South Africa is secular state and by most standards had a neutral international relations policy with a very moderate religious community‚ Snyman said

“I don’t think South Africa as a government or South Africa as a nation is under threat‚ [but] there are certain attractive targets within South Africa‚” Snyman said

South Africa is one of the most developed countries in Africa and this had advantages to extremist groups. The infrastructure made it easier for them to set up logistical operations‚ and the modern financial system it made easier for them to access funding.

Corruption was also a major attraction for extremist groups. South African passports have been used a number of times by extremists.

However‚ “I would be very surprised if an attack is launched in South Africa even against western targets [by terrorist groups]‚” he said.

Here are four groups that have been linked to South Africa:

Al Shabaab

Snyman said that Samantha Lewthwaite‚ also known as the White Widow‚ is one of the most infamous terrorists to have resided in South Africa. Snyman said that Lewthwaite lived in Mayfair‚ Johannesburg‚ in 2008‚ and was linked to the attack on the Westgate shopping mall in September 2013 where 67 people died. Lewthwaite had a South African passport.

The Jimma terrorist cells that were captured by Ethiopian authorities in 2014 had links to both Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda. Ethiopian intelligence agencies reported that some of the members of the cells possibly received logistical and financial support from elements in South Africa and also raised the possibility that they were trained in the country as well.

Al Qaeda

Khalfan Khamis Mohamed was arrested in Cape Town in 1999 and handed over to the FBI and extradited to the United States. Mohamed was involved in the 1998 United States embassy bombing in Dar es Salaam‚ Tanzania.

Abbottabad Documents were taken from Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad‚ Pakistan‚ by United States forces. Snyman said that the document gave insight into the thinking of al Qaeda and the future of the organisation in Africa.

“It was clear in those documents that South Africa is seen as an open country‚ and as a country that has possible targets for the group‚” Snyman said.

Boko Haram

Snyman said that there were rumours spurred by the xenophobic attacks in 2015 that Boko Haram would move down to South Africa and there were apparent threats against South Africans working in the territory that they operate. Snyman said that what could also be contributing to South Africa as a target would be SA mercenaries operating in the Niger delta.

Islamic State

There is an estimate of 140 South African operating in Syria and Iraq‚ Snyman said.

One of the faces of the movement from an African context is Abu Hurayra the Africa.

Hurayra has reached out to South Africans via twitter and other social media. Before his twitter feed was shut down Hurayra tweeted‚ “The land of South Africa will soon be conquered by Mujahidin [Jihadis] of the Islamic State‚ by the will of Allah.”

Snyman said that the most recent reports show that four South Africans have been killed in Syria in the last few months. The most recent to be killed left Vereeniging in September last year.

“A lot of these fighters do return‚ we have seen it in Europe‚ that they serve time in Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan but then they return home‚ and that where the concern should be. Are we able to track them‚ do we know who they are and do we have a record of them?” Snyman said.