Behold, a revolution is fomenting in South Africa. It is not the National Democratic Revolution that has been floating in the heads of the ANC's pseudo-theoreticians.
The first phase of the new revolution - #FeesMustFall - erupted hardly a month after the ANC's national general council (NGC).
As the NGC was under way, students were making their plans to render the country ungovernable - breaking into parliament and marching on the Union Buildings. The communist intellectual Vladimir Lenin might have called them "the spontaneous element".
In the beginning, Blade Nzimande simply laughed, thinking this was a storm in a tea cup. Revolutions across the world come as if they are a minor disturbance, often while dictators drink tea.
Eventually President Jacob Zuma announced, under duress, that there would be no fee increases at all South African universities next year, and that the government would explore the idea of free education for all.
This unprecedented commitment sufficed to quell the revolt, but no single announcement will be able to douse the fires of the next phase of the new revolution.
The beginning of the second phase of the revolution was the march organised by the EFF to the JSE a few days after the #FeesMustFall revolt.
Only Marie Antoinette would ignore a party that is able to mobilise more than 40000 people for a political march.
Who are those masses who marched with the EFF? Since the march was organised during the week, why were they not at work?
The answer is haunting: they are the unemployed who have not benefited from our vaunted democracy. What does freedom mean to an unemployed black person in the township?
What complicates the situation more is the conspicuous consumption that the unemployed see all around them.
This is precisely what American sociologist WEB Du Bois had observed when he lamented: "To be a poor man is hard, but to be a poor race in a land of dollars is the very bottom of hardships."
When they look around, the millions of unemployed South Africans see white people and politically-connected blacks floating in wealth. Those in government jostle to have their own Nkandla.
In a situation like this, university students will never listen to any fat politician claiming that there is no money for free education. On their part, the unemployed will not fold their arms and celebrate the promise that "blessed are the poor, for they shall see the kingdom of God".
Economist John Maynard Keynes was correct: "Men will not always die quietly. For starvation drives other temptations to the nervous instability of hysteria and to a mad despair."
When the revolution of the unemployed finally breaks out, well-fed politicians will think that the masses are mad.
Let it be remembered that rationality is the madness of the rich, and that madness is the rationality of the poor. This will be plainer the day the unemployed and the poor decide to rise against the rich, the corrupt and the fat.
No amount of "rational" exhortation will persuade the poor to lay down their stones and bottles. Not even a heavily armed police force will do. The nervous instability of hysteria will envelop us all.
Is there someone who thinks this is alarmist? Imagine what might be triggered by the EFF's demands to the JSE. Those demands are numerous and well-nigh impossible for the JSE to meet.
In the first place, the JSE is an arena for stock trading; it is not a stance-harmonising platform for listed companies.
The JSE does not have the mandate to speak or make commitments on behalf of companies.
We thus can foretell that its response will merely be pro forma and unsatisfactory to the EFF.
The EFF has threatened to shut down the JSE if it does not receive an acceptable response within 30 days.
Were this threat to be carried out, such action would paralyse the entire economy and the government would be forced to deploy armed police to clash with thousands of protesters. A situation of that kind can very easily morph into a national catastrophe.
Imagine a call being made a day after a disastrous clash between the EFF and the police, that all unemployed South Africans must march to Pretoria.
Well, the EFF might not do all that, but certainly the unemployed will not die quietly. At some point they will rise.
When they finally rise, the very students who led the #FeesMustFall campaign will lead the #UnemploymentMustFall revolution, because there are no jobs waiting for the students who are at university today.
The trouble is that when all this happens, the ANC will be associated with the problem. For not only has the party failed to create new economic opportunities, its leaders are perceived to be corrupt.
In times of great national anxiety, only credible leaders can manage a crisis.
Can we find such leaders in Nkandla?
A revolution just waiting to happen
Behold, a revolution is fomenting in South Africa. It is not the National Democratic Revolution that has been floating in the heads of the ANC's pseudo-theoreticians.
The first phase of the new revolution - #FeesMustFall - erupted hardly a month after the ANC's national general council (NGC).
As the NGC was under way, students were making their plans to render the country ungovernable - breaking into parliament and marching on the Union Buildings. The communist intellectual Vladimir Lenin might have called them "the spontaneous element".
In the beginning, Blade Nzimande simply laughed, thinking this was a storm in a tea cup. Revolutions across the world come as if they are a minor disturbance, often while dictators drink tea.
Eventually President Jacob Zuma announced, under duress, that there would be no fee increases at all South African universities next year, and that the government would explore the idea of free education for all.
This unprecedented commitment sufficed to quell the revolt, but no single announcement will be able to douse the fires of the next phase of the new revolution.
The beginning of the second phase of the revolution was the march organised by the EFF to the JSE a few days after the #FeesMustFall revolt.
Only Marie Antoinette would ignore a party that is able to mobilise more than 40000 people for a political march.
Who are those masses who marched with the EFF? Since the march was organised during the week, why were they not at work?
The answer is haunting: they are the unemployed who have not benefited from our vaunted democracy. What does freedom mean to an unemployed black person in the township?
What complicates the situation more is the conspicuous consumption that the unemployed see all around them.
This is precisely what American sociologist WEB Du Bois had observed when he lamented: "To be a poor man is hard, but to be a poor race in a land of dollars is the very bottom of hardships."
When they look around, the millions of unemployed South Africans see white people and politically-connected blacks floating in wealth. Those in government jostle to have their own Nkandla.
In a situation like this, university students will never listen to any fat politician claiming that there is no money for free education. On their part, the unemployed will not fold their arms and celebrate the promise that "blessed are the poor, for they shall see the kingdom of God".
Economist John Maynard Keynes was correct: "Men will not always die quietly. For starvation drives other temptations to the nervous instability of hysteria and to a mad despair."
When the revolution of the unemployed finally breaks out, well-fed politicians will think that the masses are mad.
Let it be remembered that rationality is the madness of the rich, and that madness is the rationality of the poor. This will be plainer the day the unemployed and the poor decide to rise against the rich, the corrupt and the fat.
No amount of "rational" exhortation will persuade the poor to lay down their stones and bottles. Not even a heavily armed police force will do. The nervous instability of hysteria will envelop us all.
Is there someone who thinks this is alarmist? Imagine what might be triggered by the EFF's demands to the JSE. Those demands are numerous and well-nigh impossible for the JSE to meet.
In the first place, the JSE is an arena for stock trading; it is not a stance-harmonising platform for listed companies.
The JSE does not have the mandate to speak or make commitments on behalf of companies.
We thus can foretell that its response will merely be pro forma and unsatisfactory to the EFF.
The EFF has threatened to shut down the JSE if it does not receive an acceptable response within 30 days.
Were this threat to be carried out, such action would paralyse the entire economy and the government would be forced to deploy armed police to clash with thousands of protesters. A situation of that kind can very easily morph into a national catastrophe.
Imagine a call being made a day after a disastrous clash between the EFF and the police, that all unemployed South Africans must march to Pretoria.
Well, the EFF might not do all that, but certainly the unemployed will not die quietly. At some point they will rise.
When they finally rise, the very students who led the #FeesMustFall campaign will lead the #UnemploymentMustFall revolution, because there are no jobs waiting for the students who are at university today.
The trouble is that when all this happens, the ANC will be associated with the problem. For not only has the party failed to create new economic opportunities, its leaders are perceived to be corrupt.
In times of great national anxiety, only credible leaders can manage a crisis.
Can we find such leaders in Nkandla?
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