It is six days to the local government elections. Political parties have been all over the country painting communities in their various party colours.
This year's elections have been touted as the year of coalitions.
But what will really make a difference to the performance of political parties in this election?
Voter turnout for local government elections is often much lower than it is for general elections. This means every vote tends to weigh more heavily.
The big changes predicted for 2016 will depend greatly on how successful parties are in getting their supporters to the polls.
If parties thought that numbers mattered during the competition to see who could fill a stadium to capacity, the competition for who can bring out the most voters on election day matters even more.
No EFF coalition with ANC: Malema
For the ANC, it will mean retaining the big metros or being defeated by coalitions.
The ANC, DA and EFF, the front-runners in this year's elections, have all been reluctant to speak about coalitions.
The popular refrain has been that "we do not contest elections to form coalitions but to win".
South Africa's political system has, for all intents and purposes, been a dominant party system since 1994. The ANC has been the centre of political life, commanding majorities at national, provincial and local levels for the past 22 years. But 2016 will mark a change in this narrative. The DA and the EFF have a lot more to play for and to gain, and the ANC a lot more to lose.
ANC leaders, including Jacob Zuma, Cyril Ramaphosa and Gwede Mantashe, have been reassuring the masses and party faithful that the party will not lose the highly contested metros - Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay.
Party stalwarts have joined the chorus of those who say the ANC is the only party capable of governing because it has been doing so for a long time. This should be interpreted as a display of confidence and self-assuredness. But the unintended consequences of such talk will be to make the party's supporters complacent.
The DA is capitalising on the diminishing credibility of Zuma and the ANC government given the many scandals embroiling Zuma (Nkandla), public institutions (such as the SABC) and various parastatals (like SAA).
It has succeeded in sparking a debate on the ANC's claim on the values of late former president Nelson Mandela, using him as a contrast to the paucity of ethics confronting the movement.
The EFF also presents a dilemma for the governing party. The genius of the EFF and its leader Julius Malema has been to use the ANC's slow pace in implementing its own policies and realising its own ideals against it.
The EFF is championing the very aspects of the transformation that the ANC promised to deliver on but has thus far failed to, the most contentious being land reform and redistribution of wealth.
Capitalising on the frustration and disappointment of people who feel they have been left behind in the country's freedom is the young party's strategy.
Demographics are also a big deal in these elections. The largest number of those who registered for the first time are the so-called born-frees. People under the age of 30 make up just under 50% of the voter's roll.
Under these circumstances, for the ANC to rely on its liberation credentials and the stature and legacy of its stalwarts is naïve.
This is the election where it has to work hard to counter the messages of its lack of political will and failure to deliver on promises being driven by the opposition.
But it will need to say more than that to convince a disillusioned youth that faces the reality of joblessness. This is the group the EFF is appealing to.
Any apathy on its part could mean the ANC will be serving as the official opposition in most of the big metros under a coalition led by either the DA or EFF.
Comment on Twitter @NompumeleloRunj. E-mail nompumelelo.runji@gmail.com
An era of coalition could see ANC lose out
It is six days to the local government elections. Political parties have been all over the country painting communities in their various party colours.
This year's elections have been touted as the year of coalitions.
But what will really make a difference to the performance of political parties in this election?
Voter turnout for local government elections is often much lower than it is for general elections. This means every vote tends to weigh more heavily.
The big changes predicted for 2016 will depend greatly on how successful parties are in getting their supporters to the polls.
If parties thought that numbers mattered during the competition to see who could fill a stadium to capacity, the competition for who can bring out the most voters on election day matters even more.
No EFF coalition with ANC: Malema
For the ANC, it will mean retaining the big metros or being defeated by coalitions.
The ANC, DA and EFF, the front-runners in this year's elections, have all been reluctant to speak about coalitions.
The popular refrain has been that "we do not contest elections to form coalitions but to win".
South Africa's political system has, for all intents and purposes, been a dominant party system since 1994. The ANC has been the centre of political life, commanding majorities at national, provincial and local levels for the past 22 years. But 2016 will mark a change in this narrative. The DA and the EFF have a lot more to play for and to gain, and the ANC a lot more to lose.
ANC leaders, including Jacob Zuma, Cyril Ramaphosa and Gwede Mantashe, have been reassuring the masses and party faithful that the party will not lose the highly contested metros - Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay.
Party stalwarts have joined the chorus of those who say the ANC is the only party capable of governing because it has been doing so for a long time. This should be interpreted as a display of confidence and self-assuredness. But the unintended consequences of such talk will be to make the party's supporters complacent.
The DA is capitalising on the diminishing credibility of Zuma and the ANC government given the many scandals embroiling Zuma (Nkandla), public institutions (such as the SABC) and various parastatals (like SAA).
It has succeeded in sparking a debate on the ANC's claim on the values of late former president Nelson Mandela, using him as a contrast to the paucity of ethics confronting the movement.
The EFF also presents a dilemma for the governing party. The genius of the EFF and its leader Julius Malema has been to use the ANC's slow pace in implementing its own policies and realising its own ideals against it.
The EFF is championing the very aspects of the transformation that the ANC promised to deliver on but has thus far failed to, the most contentious being land reform and redistribution of wealth.
Capitalising on the frustration and disappointment of people who feel they have been left behind in the country's freedom is the young party's strategy.
Demographics are also a big deal in these elections. The largest number of those who registered for the first time are the so-called born-frees. People under the age of 30 make up just under 50% of the voter's roll.
Under these circumstances, for the ANC to rely on its liberation credentials and the stature and legacy of its stalwarts is naïve.
This is the election where it has to work hard to counter the messages of its lack of political will and failure to deliver on promises being driven by the opposition.
But it will need to say more than that to convince a disillusioned youth that faces the reality of joblessness. This is the group the EFF is appealing to.
Any apathy on its part could mean the ANC will be serving as the official opposition in most of the big metros under a coalition led by either the DA or EFF.
Comment on Twitter @NompumeleloRunj. E-mail nompumelelo.runji@gmail.com
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