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SA’s fragile business confidence holds steady in December

SA’s fragile business confidence held steady in December 2016 while reversing a severe drop of a year ago‚ the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s business confidence index showed on Wednesday.

The improvement follows favourable export and import volumes‚ improvement in the rand-exchange rate and the real value of buildings passed.

The leniency by international credit rating agencies S&P Global Ratings‚ Moody’s and Fitch Ratings‚ who did not downgrade SA’s investment grade rating to junk in December‚ also swelled business confidence.

Sacci said this afforded the country an opportunity to address matters that seriously constrain the economy‚ dut warned that “apart from not creating wealth and feeding unemployment‚ the consequences of these restraints for public sector and household debt‚ the erosion of savings‚ the degrading of capital stock and inappropriate investment levels will continue to seriously hamper future economic growth”.

However‚ the business organisation added that a continuation of the more steady business climate reflected in December would “enhance the current weak upward momentum in the (index)”.

The monthly Sacci index‚ which tracks 13 sub-indices‚ registered a marginal decline of 0.1 index point to 93.8 in December from 93.9 in November. But the most notable difference was an improvement from a year ago‚ when the index plunged 10.1 index points in December 2015. Sacci said the latest reading is the first time in 10 months that the index had improved on a year earlier.

Sacci said index recovered well up until July last year when it touched 96.0 after which it contracted to a low of 90.3 in September 2016. Towards the end of 2015‚ the index improved slowly and gradually and remained steady.

Five sub-indices contributed positively between November to December led by improvement in merchandise export and import volumes‚ the rand exchange rate and the real value of building plans passed.

Six sub-indices weighed negatively on the index in December while two remained unchanged. The US dollar price of precious metals‚ credit to the private sector‚ real retail sales and share prices made the largest negative impact on the index from November to December 2016.

Sacci said 2016 was a difficult year for business peppered with “adverse political‚ economic and institutional arrangements”‚ which led to the index touching historic lows. But it predicted that the challenges would provide new opportunities “this could loosen up the momentum for improved business confidence”. – TMG Digital

 

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